Oil prices have broken out above resistance from a tight trading range since the holidays. We attribute this latest rally to geopolitical tremors more than a vote of confidence from markets on global growth given softening data.…
The USD has steamrolled both DM and EM currencies since the US election. Among the victims was the Chinese yuan, with USDCNY strengthening towards 7.3, a multi-year resistance level, from 7.11 on the day of the election. The CNY…
Our US equity strategists just published their annual outlook, where they discuss the environment and rotation they foresee in 2025, which is more bullish than our House View. Our colleagues see Trump 2.0 policies…
Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026. Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.China will retaliate against Trump…
Our Geopolitical Strategy team published their annual outlook, and see three trends shaping 2025. First, Congress is expected to pass tax cuts by the end of 2025, providing a fiscal thrust of 0.9% of GDP in 2026.…
This month, our Here, There, And Everywhere Chartpack summarizes our main thesis for 2025: the three main narratives driving markets today – fiscal profligacy, trade war, and geopolitical conflict – will peak at some point in…
After more than 10 years of civil war, Bashar Al-Assad’s rule came to an abrupt end when rebels captured Damascus. Syria might not be a significant country in economic or financial terms, but it is part of the Middle…
South Korea is undergoing political turmoil, with President Yoon attempting to declare martial law. The situation is fluid and can change quickly, but there are a few investment takeaways. As we pointed a few weeks back, BCA…
France finds itself in a unique, thorny situation. Can it heave itself out of it? And what does it mean for investors?