Highlights Analyses on Indonesia and South Africa are available below. The slowdown in Chinese domestic demand has been the main culprit behind the global trade contraction - not the U.S.-China trade confrontation. China’s…
We remain bullish on global equities and other risk assets but continue to be on the lookout for evidence of any scenario that could undermine our thesis. One particular risk, is the possibility that a weaker U.S. economy further…
Warren is benefiting from a deep-seated shift to the left in political preferences among Democratic primary voters. The share of Democrats who identify as “liberal” has more than doubled since the mid-1990s at the…
Following drone attacks on critical oil infrastructure in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) over the weekend, which removed ~ 5.7mm b/d of output, the U.S. is likely to conduct a limited retaliatory strike. In addition, the U.S. will…
The U.S. and China are now officially easing tensions. Trump has delayed the October 1 tariff hike (from 25% to 30% on $250 billion worth of goods), while China has issued waivers for tariffs and promised to increase purchases of…
Weak economic data is alarming for a sitting president. Following a drop in business sentiment and investment, consumer sentiment is now suffering. Manufacturing – the sector Trump was ostensibly elected to defend –…
Highlights We remain bullish on global equities and spread product but acknowledge a variety of risks to our thesis. One such risk involves a scenario where a weaker U.S. economy hurts President Trump’s re-election prospects,…
Highlights Trump is now clearly retreating from policies that harm the economy and reduce his reelection chances. Geopolitical risks are abating for the first time since May – a boon for financial markets amid global policy…