The United States is insulated from global trade, but only to a point – it cannot escape a global recession should one develop, given that its economy is still closely linked to the rest of the world. With global and U.S.…
Trump’s predicament suggests that he will have to adjust his policies. Global trade, capital spending, and sentiment have deteriorated significantly since the last escalation-and-delay episode with China in May and June.…
For several years Erdogan has attempted to distract the populace from the country’s economic slide by adopting an aggressive foreign policy, particularly toward the West. The immediate cause is Syria, where Turkey has…
The recent RMB depreciation will likely intensify the Chinese import contraction, as the same amount of yuan will buy less goods priced in U.S. dollars. Since the majority of goods and commodities procured by mainland companies…
The media and many investors seem to be solely focused on the impact of U.S. tariffs against imports from China. Yet, these tariffs have not been the primary cause of the ongoing global manufacturing and trade recessions. The…
Highlights Economic data suggest the current business cycle in China has not yet reached a bottom. Stimulus measures have not been forceful enough to fully offset a slowing domestic economy and weakening global demand. With possibly…
Highlights Duration: Hawkish trade policy will continue to weigh on bond yields for at least the next few months, but a rebound in global economic growth should take hold before the end of the year. Ultimately, a growth rebound will…
This Monday we published a Special Report by Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical Strategist where Matt takes a dive into implications of the U.S.-Iran hot and U.S.-China cold wars. What follows is a snipped of the investment…