Neither the U.S. nor China would gain from a prolonged trade war. This does not mean that a “World War I” scenario, where all parties end up severely worse off from their actions, can be completely excluded. However,…
For the Chinese, it is not just a matter of losing access to the vast U.S. market. It’s also about losing access to vital technologies that China needs to further its ambitions in everything from robotics, to AI, to…
Chinese money and credit growth, especially forward-looking liquidity indicators such as M2 relative to GDP, have bottomed. Historically, this led the cycle by a few months. The drop in Chinese bond yields is also reflationary,…
Japan and the East China Sea: Japan’s top military official – General Koji Yamazaki – recently warned that Chinese military intrusions are increasing around the disputed Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands in the East…
While the U.S. threatens to cut off Chinese tech companies like Huawei, Beijing has signaled that countermeasures would include an embargo on U.S. imports of rare earth elements and products. When China implemented a partial rare…
Highlights So What? Tariffs and currency depreciation will likely lead to military saber-rattling in Asia Pacific. Why? President Trump is not immune to the market’s reaction to his trade war escalation. Yet China’s…
Dear Client, In addition to this week’s Global Investment Strategy report, I am sending you a Special Report on Japan written by Amr Hanafy, Research Associate of BCA’s Global Asset Allocation service. Best regards, Peter…
The MSCI Hong Kong index has also significantly underperformed the global benchmark since late-July, in response to intensifying protests in the city. The protests have been driven by underlying socio-economic factors as well…
Just as it appeared the slowdown in global industrial activity had run its course, commodity markets face another test of demand resiliency brought on by exogenous political shocks (Chart Of The Week). As luck would have it, these…