The move is not unprecedented - the U.S. accused China of currency manipulation from 1992-94 - but our Geopolitical Team argues that the U.S. and China have experienced a structural break in relations that is the fundamental…
First, the Federal Reserve dashed investors’ hopes for an extended easing cycle. While the Fed did cut rates by 25 basis points and pledged to end its balance sheet runoff in August (two months earlier than previously…
Politicians have to pay attention to the opinion polls as well as the referendum result, since opinion polls impact the next election. These show a plurality in favor of remaining in the EU and a strong trend against Brexit since…
All of Boris Johnson's moves, since he took over, were anticipated – hence the decline in our Geopolitical Strategy Service's GeoRisk indicator – but the pound sterling is falling now that the confrontation is…
President Donald Trump was unhappy with the Federal Reserve’s somewhat hawkish interest rate cut on July 31. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the cut should not be seen as the launch of a “lengthy rate cutting…
Highlights So What? Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s threat to take the U.K. out of the EU without a withdrawal deal in place is a substantial 21% risk. Why? The odds of a no-deal exit could range from today’s 21% to around…
Even the groups that are least sympathetic to the protesters – political moderates, the elderly, low-income groups, and the least educated – are more or less divided over the controversial extradition bill that…
The thawing of Asia’s frozen post-WWII conflicts is a paradigm shift with significant long-term consequences for investors. The fundamental drivers are as follows: China’s rise is not peaceful: President Xi Jinping…
While the Conservatives and the U.K. have a new leader, as far as Brexit is concerned, plus ça change plus c’est la même chose. A new leader does not change the tight parliamentary arithmetic in which the…
Highlights So What? Key geopolitical risks remain unresolved and most of the improvements are transitory. Maintain a cautious tactical stance toward risk assets. Why? U.S.-China relations remain the preeminent geopolitical risk to…