Highlights As central banks continue to push on a string for 2 percent inflation, it will underpin the valuation of equities and other risk-assets. So long as the global 10-year bond yield remains well below 2.5 percent, equity market…
Most of the major progressive candidates are electable – they have a popular and electoral path to the White House – as revealed by their successful head-to-head polling against Trump in battleground state opinion…
The risks are to the downside because the market is at all-time highs and Democratic proposals include raising taxes on corporations and re-regulating the economy. Whether you accept our 55% odds of Trump reelection, the race…
Highlights So What? U.S. policy uncertainty adds to a slew of geopolitical reasons to remain tactically cautious on risk assets. Why? U.S. fiscal policy should ultimately bring market-positive developments – though the budget…
Rising polarization could prevent the U.S. from responding coherently to China. The Thucydides Trap could be avoided, or delayed, simply because the U.S. is distracted elsewhere. The most likely candidate is Iran. A lesser…
The term, coined by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison, refers to the ancient Greek historian Thucydides (460-400 BC), author of the seminal History of the Peloponnesian War. The “trap” is the armed conflict…
Highlights The breakout in financial asset prices stands at odds with a deteriorating profit outlook. This suggests a high probability of a coiled-spring reversal in one of the two variables as we enter the thin summer trading months.…
For the remainder of the year, Our Global Investment Strategy team's baseline envisions a “muddle through” scenario for the Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, where some sort of deal is hatched that allows the U.S. to…