The pressures in Hong Kong also highlight why we view Taiwan as a potential “Black Swan.” Similar political fissures are emerging as Beijing expands its economic and military dominance over Taiwan. Of course, the…
The current protests are part of a process going back to 2012 in which the disaffected and marginalized parts of Hong Kong society began speaking up against the political establishment. This emerged because of high income…
The no-deal option is the default scenario if an agreement is not finalized by the Halloween deadline and no further extension is granted. However, Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow recently stated that the prime…
While the timeline for this process is straightforward, the impact on the Brexit process is not. The odds of a “no-deal Brexit” have increased but so has the prospect of parliament passing a soft Brexit prior to any…
In the lead up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Hillary Clinton, a health care reformer (though importantly NOT a Medicare for All advocate) was polling well ahead of Donald Trump. Health care stocks underperformed the…
Our Geopolitical Strategy service attempts a conservative, back-of-the-envelope method for estimating the probability of passage. It runs like this: There is a 50% chance a progressive wins the Democratic nomination. We…
China dominates global production and export markets, so this would be a serious disruption in the near term. Global sentiment would worsen, weighing on all risk assets, and tech companies and manufacturers that rely on rare…
On March 6 our Geopolitical Strategy team argued that a deal had a 50% chance of getting settled by the June 28-29 G20 summit in Japan, with a 30% chance talks would totally collapse. Since then, they have reduced the odds of a…