Geopolitics
Our Geopolitical Strategy colleagues published their annual “Black Swan” report, where they outline low-odds scenarios that could have a major impact on financial markets. Here is the 2025 edition: China’s Policy Reversal: A complete policy shift by…
The global economy is subject to numerous cycles displaying reflexivity and feedback loops. One of these is the relationship between financial conditions and growth. Given this relationship, economic strength can plant the seeds of its own demise.Markets are…
Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US military action across the Americas, and an internationally coordinated FX intervention.
Oil prices have broken out above resistance from a tight trading range since the holidays. We attribute this latest rally to geopolitical tremors more than a vote of confidence from markets on global growth given softening data. The global economy is…
Our GeoMacro strategists published their Alpha Report, outlining their view that President Trump will have to pare back his fiscal ambitions to avoid a bond market riot. The long end of the US bond market continues to sell off, reinforcing our…
For our last publication of the year, we explore five key themes that will dominate the European macro landscape and markets next year. While the start of 2025 will be challenging for European assets, the latter part will offer some much-needed relief.
The USD has steamrolled both DM and EM currencies since the US election. Among the victims was the Chinese yuan, with USDCNY strengthening towards 7.3, a multi-year resistance level, from 7.11 on the day of the election. The CNY weakened further Wednesday…
Our US equity strategists just published their annual outlook, where they discuss the environment and rotation they foresee in 2025, which is more bullish than our House View. Our colleagues see Trump 2.0 policies driving economic growth and…
- Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026.
- Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.
- China will retaliate against Trump and stimulate its domestic economy, while pursuing stronger trade ties with other countries. Europe will also retaliate.
- Geopolitical risk will shift from Ukraine-Russia to Israel-Iran, where the conflict will continue to escalate until a crisis point is reached within 2025.
Our Geopolitical Strategy team published their annual outlook, and see three trends shaping 2025. First, Congress is expected to pass tax cuts by the end of 2025, providing a fiscal thrust of 0.9% of GDP in 2026. This stimulus will likely…