Any additional stimulus will help sustain the current blossoming rebound in global growth, which has been fueled in part by improved economic sentiment and a pickup in Chinese credit growth. In addition, Chinese import demand has…
BCA's Global Investment Strategy has recommended a tactical hedge to the overall overweight allocation to global equities in our House View matrix by shorting the S&P 500 index. However, we do not see the need to…
Highlights Looking past the day-to-day noise of trade-related announcements, we view the underlying odds of an actual trade agreement this year to have fallen below 50%. For the purposes of investment strategy, China-exposed investors…
Highlights U.S. Bond Strategy: U.S. Treasury yields are already priced for rate cuts and lower inflation, even as U.S. (and global) growth indicators are improving and U.S. realized inflation has ticked up. Maintain a below-benchmark…
This concept is simple to understand, but difficult to implement. It is far easier to get lost in rumor intelligence-driven analysis of political consultants and journalists who pass on the cocktail party chatter insights…
Why has the median voter remained supportive of European institutions despite mixed economic performance? For one, investors – particularly outside continental Europe – continue to overstate how much emphasis…
Despite President Trump’s claim that the tariffs paid to the U.S. Treasury were “mostly borne by China,” the evidence suggests that close to 100% of the tariffs were, in fact, borne by U.S. companies and…
A trade war would hurt China, however, it is no longer as dependent on trade as it once was. Chinese exports to the U.S. account for only 3.6% of GDP, down from 7.3% of GDP in 2006. China also has plenty of tools to support…
There are many reasons why markets may have remained stable in the face of what was very bad news overnight. Chinese trade negotiators are still in Washington, keeping a glimmer of hope alive within investors that the tariffs…
In the U.S., the most important data sets may well prove to be the NAHB homebuilder confidence survey on Wednesday and the housing starts data on Thursday. Residential investment needs to strengthen further, otherwise the…