Highlights The clear and present deterioration in Sino-U.S. trade negotiations suggests the dollar will remain bid in the near term. While the probability of a trade deal has fallen, the situation remains highly fluid, and the odds…
Highlights Even if higher tariffs are imposed tonight, there is a good chance that China and the U.S. will reach a temporary trade truce over the coming weeks. Contrary to President Trump’s assertion, U.S. companies and…
Given its gloomy economic outlook, Iran is looking to expand ties with its neighbors in an attempt to soften the blow from the sanctions. Earlier this year president Hassan Rouhani and Iraqi prime minister Adel Abdul Mahdi signed…
The Iranians, for their part, are unlikely to leap to the most aggressive forms of retaliation immediately – such as fomenting unrest in Iraq – because of their economic vulnerability. Small acts of sabotage or…
President Donald Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese imports this Friday. The threat came ahead of a week of meetings in Washington that had been billed as the final round of negotiations. Chinese…
Investor surveys show that the majority of investors’ top concerns are political or geopolitical in nature. Yet there is limited research devoted to quantifying these risks. The most prominent techniques involve tallying…