Investor surveys show that the majority of investors’ top concerns are political or geopolitical in nature. Yet there is limited research devoted to quantifying these risks. The most prominent techniques involve tallying…
Highlights So what? Quantifying geopolitical risk just got easier. Why? In this report we introduce 10 proprietary, market-based indicators of country-level political and geopolitical risk. Featured countries include…
Highlights Evidence continues to mount that the Chinese economy is in a bottoming process. This suggests the path of least resistance for the RMB is up. Meanwhile, as the U.S. and China move closer to a trade deal, any geopolitical…
Our China Investment Strategy has highlighted that the BCA Activity Indicator has now fully registered the negative impact of trade tariffs as well as the broader slowdown. President Xi Jinping is not truly a modern-day…
This should temper enthusiasm regarding the long-term durability of the trade truce, highlighting that China’s credit data is the more important factor for the 12-month horizon, though the trade issue is an impediment that…
Highlights Foreign investors have been rushing into Indian equities in anticipation of a Modi win. While Modi’s chances are reasonable, he may not win an outright majority. Keep tactically underweighting Indian stocks for now.…
Highlights Most currency pairs continue to trade toward the apex of tight wedge formations. History suggests major breakouts could be imminent. While the trade-weighted dollar has historically tended to be the best performing…
Highlights Maintain a pro-cyclical stance for the time being – overweight equities versus bonds, long commodities, overweight industrial equities, and underweight healthcare equities. But be warned, absent a continued decline in…