Highlights So what? EM elections bring opportunities as well as risks. Why? Emerging market equities will benefit as long as China’s stimulus does not fizzle. Modi is on track to win India’s election –…
Highlights Driven by its fear that deflation is a more intractable danger than inflation, the Federal Reserve has enshrined its pause for the remainder of 2019 in order to lift inflation expectations. Since the U.S. business cycle…
Highlights Await the U.K. parliament to coalesce a majority on a on a credible strategy for Brexit that is also acceptable to the EU27. At that point, buy the pound, the FTSE250, and U.K. homebuilder shares. An eerie calm has…
Highlights So What? The late-cycle rally still faces non-trivial political hurdles. Why? U.S.-China trade talks, the U.S. threat of tariffs on auto imports, and Brexit continue to pose risks. A shocking revelation from the…
The first vote, as we go to press on Tuesday, has resulted in a rejection of Prime Minister Theresa May’s exit plan by 149 votes – the second rejection after her colossal defeat in January by 230 votes. However,…
If Trump concludes a deal with China, the next question for investors is whether he will impose Section 232 tariffs on auto and auto imports on the EU and other partners. A rotation of Trump trade policy to focus on Europe is…
This is reflected in our subjective trade-deal probabilities, which hold that an additional extension is as likely as a final deal this month and that the risk of a relapse into trade war remains elevated at 30%. Fundamentally…
First, Trump’s extension of the tariff deadline – which he originally envisioned as a pause for a month “or less” – could just as easily lead to additional extensions rather than a quick resolution…