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  The 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s saw multiple tax brackets, all with progressively higher marginal tax rates. In the 1970s, the 70% tax rate started at $460,000 in 2012 dollars, and a 50% rate began at $100,000 in 2012 dollars. The…
Special Report After rising for thousands of years, human intelligence has begun to decline in developed economies. This can be seen in falling IQ scores and a decline in math and science test scores. Environmental factors appear to account for the…
Highlights Global equity markets have managed to recoup some of last year’s plunge since we upgraded stocks to overweight in late December. The equity rally has been tentative, however, and so far feels more like a technical…
Highlights So What? A 70% tax on Americans with income over $10 million is not far-fetched. Why? The median U.S. voter wants higher taxes on the wealthy; Both populism and geopolitics make it impossible to cut spending; The…
Special Report Venezuela’s stability is deteriorating rapidly along the lines of our projections in recent years. Regime failure is at this point a high probability and poses immediate risks to global oil production. Our conviction is high because…
Highlights After this week’s drama, the Brexit political process remains extremely complex, but the probability of a hard Brexit is still below 10%. No easy compromise will come through as Brexit suffers a fundamental…
Highlights After this week’s drama, the Brexit political process remains extremely complex, but the probability of a hard Brexit is still below 10%. No easy compromise will come through as Brexit suffers a fundamental…
  Any relationship entailing continued access to EU institutions and markets will require two elements that reduce sovereignty: Paying an access fee and accepting the acquis communautaire of the EU without having a say in how it is…
  The EU is on record stating that it would agree to extend the Article 50 deadline, currently set for March 29. The EU can do so with a unanimous vote of the EU Council. London can extend Article 50 with a simple legislative act,…
Highlights The U.S. economy is slowing in a completely predictable manner. With inflationary pressures largely dormant, the Fed can afford to stay on hold for the next few FOMC meetings. Growth in the U.S. and the rest of the world…