BCA Research has long argued that the primary source of structural geopolitical risk facing global investors resides in Asia, and involves the U.S., China, and other neighbors caught in the mix. As a result, our geopolitical…
Highlights Buy the pound as soon as the U.K. parliament coalesces a majority around an action plan to counter a no-deal Brexit. For equity investors the best play is a FTSE Small Company Index ETF and/or U.K. REITS. Beaten-down banks…
President Trump does not care about stock prices any more than previous presidents. What matters to him is to avoid a protracted equity bear market, which might trigger a recession, endangering his chances of re-election.…
Dear Client, This Wednesday January 9th 2019, we are publishing a joint report co-written with BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy team. There will be no report on Friday. Best Regards, Mathieu Savary, Vice President Foreign…
Income inequality has been one of the key drivers of the rise in populism witnessed across the globe. Today’s Insights investigate two levels of inequality and consider some policy and financial market implications. It…
There are three levels of inequality that investors need to be familiar with in the context of populism: global, national, labor. The first level starts big, on the international stage, where economic outcomes are examined on a…
Investors have been rightfully worried that populism would negatively impact international trade relations, however, populism can have domestic investment implications as well. A country’s grows national income is…
Populism and profits don’t fit together. As we wrote last August in these pages, sky-high tech-sector profit margins will be vulnerable to policy risk as elected officials try to claw back some of that national income pie in…
Highlights Asset allocation: Start 2019 with an overweight to industrial commodities versus equities. Await an oversold sell-off signal on the 65-day fractal dimension to go tactically overweight equities versus cash. Equities: Start…