There are five reasons our geopolitical strategists doubt the sustainability of the truce: Trade imbalance: It is highly unlikely that the trade imbalance between China and the U.S. can be substantively altered over the course…
President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping have agreed to freeze additional new tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. for three months. This means that as of January 1, 2019, U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports will remain at…
Highlights So What? The U.S.-China tariff ceasefire is a net positive, but a final deal is by no means assured. Why? In the near term there may be a play on global risk assets, but beyond that we remain cautious. Global…
The scheduled meeting between President Trump and President Xi on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on December 1 has generated a fair amount of speculation that the trade war will be resolved or at least put on…
Presidential summits can have major consequences, but context is everything. Trump’s impending meeting with President Xi will be the third since he took office. The first two did not prevent the trade war. Neither did high-…
Although there are a few signs of easing tensions between the U.S. and China, there are also signs that any agreement will provide just a temporary reprieve from the broader U.S-China tussle. First, China is negotiating under…
The U.S. economy continues to support the case for Fed normalization, while China’s stimulus continues to disappoint. The result is a double whammy for commodity prices and EM assets as the dollar strengthens and exports of…