Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation. Mr. X: I have…
Highlights The relative performance of developed market (DM) versus emerging market (EM) equities just corresponds to the relative performance of healthcare versus financials. On a six month horizon, DM will underperform EM. Within…
The Democratic takeover of the House, and the subsequent gridlock the election will produce, could help avert a "stimulus cliff" scenario in 2020. This should help the Fed to stay-the-course with rate hikes. Treasury…
President Trump is unconstrained when it comes to being tough with China partly because he has broad-based and bi-partisan support for an aggressive foreign policy. As our geopolitical strategists have aptly highlighted, one…
Our Chief Geopolitical Strategist, Marko Papic, just wrote a fantastic piece on how the secular upswing in U.S.-China tensions could shape the future of critical industries (to impacting both investors and governments) and…
Highlights When we flagged the increasing likelihood of higher volatility a few weeks ago, we did not expect the Trump Administration's granting of waivers on sanctions against Iranian oil exports, which ultimately led to the oil-…
Highlights So What? The Trump administration is focusing on re-election in 2020, which could push the recession call into 2021. Why? The midterms were investment-relevant, just not in the way most of our clients thought. We are…
Highlights Gold's performance during the "Red October" equities sell-off, coupled with that of the most widely followed gold ratios (copper- and oil-to-gold), indicates investors and commodity traders are not pricing in a…
The Democrats will not be able to pass any tax hikes with a Republican president and Senate able to veto them. The only legislative areas that could see compromise between the two parties over 2018-20 would be infrastructure…