The most important question for global investors is whether Merkel's fall from grace is related to a growing trend of populism in Europe. The answer is ‘yes’ in part, but Merkel's problem runs deeper.…
Mounting supply-side uncertainty will keep the risk premium in oil prices - and volatility - elevated after U.S. export sanctions against Iran kick in November 4 (Chart of the Week). Chart of the WeekOil-Price Risk Premium Will Continue…
The first option, to stay in the EU, is politically impossible unless a new referendum in the U.K. overturns the original referendum's vote to leave. The second option, to join the European Economic Area, the European Free…
Highlights The long term direction for the pound is higher... ...but as the EU withdrawal bill passes through the U.K. parliament, expect a very hairy ride. The stock markets in Norway, Sweden and Denmark are driven by energy,…
Highlights So What? The odds of the Democrats taking the Senate have fallen. Meanwhile China's policy easing will benefit China itself, or consumer goods exporters, more so than other EMs. Why? China is the fulcrum of global…
The U.S. holds shows of force fairly frequently. Over recent decades it has been the third most common type of operation for the U.S. military. However, for most of the past several decades, the U.S. conducted very few operations…
Our Geopolitical Strategy service thinks China could respond to the U.S. “show of force” in two ways: directly or through proxies. The direct response would involve confronting the U.S. military openly and…