China's greatest strength in winning friends is that its domestic demand remains relatively robust. China can substitute away from the U.S. by shifting to other developed markets. Emerging markets are becoming more connected…
What was initially an uncertain rise in U.S.-China trade tension has now become much more significant in both the depth and breadth of the economic battle between these two nations. Since President Trump went forward with his…
In the short term, a Bolsonaro presidency will boost business and market sentiment. This is mainly because the voters rewarded right-leaning parties in Congress and hence supported Bolsonaro's ability to form a majority…
Jair Bolsonaro, an ex-army captain and a right-leaning, law-and-order candidate has won a surprising victory in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election (Chart I-1). Bolsonaro came within striking distance of 50%, but did…
There are three reasons why investors holding this view are likely mistaken. First, in the U.S., the actual implementation of tariffs lies within the control of the White House. Congress has already delegated substantial…
In response to the Fed’s expected rate hike earlier this week, President Trump re-engaged with the Fed by criticizing its decision to move rates higher and further tighten monetary conditions. Several of our strategists…