Special Report

Highlights NAFTA is truly at risk - as currency markets suggest; NAFTA's impact on the U.S. economy is positive but marginal; The key question is whether Trump is a true populist or a "pluto-populist"; If the former,…

Highlights The bill is bullish for growth and therefore for the equity markets and the U.S. dollar; The bill consists mostly of tax cuts, not reforms, that favor corporations and the wealthiest taxpayers; The bill is bullish for…

Highlights London house prices have dropped 7% since the U.K. Government started the formal process of Brexit seven months ago. Stay underweight U.K. real estate and consumer services versus German real estate and consumer services.…

Special Report

Dear Client, The attached report on China’s just-completed nineteenth National Party Congress marks the culmination of six years of political analysis by BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy. In it, my colleague Matt Gertken posits…

Special Report

Highlights Xi Jinping has shed domestic political constraints that have been in place since 2012; The lack of constraints suggests his reform agenda will intensify over the next 12 months; The use of anti-corruption agencies to…

Special Report

Dear Client, In addition to this Special Report, we are publishing our monthly Tactical Asset Allocation table and supporting indicators today. These can be accessed directly from our website. Best regards, Peter Berezin, Chief Global…

Feature This week we are sending you a shorter-than-usual market update, as we are also publishing a Special Report exploring the outlook for USD cross-currency basis swap spreads. This report argues that USD basis swap spreads should…

Special Report

Dear Client, This month's Special Report is written by my colleague, Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist. Peter highlights three key demographic trends that will shape financial markets in the coming decades. His non-consensus…

Highlights The macro environment remains positive for risk assets. Nonetheless, the shadow of the '87 stock market crash is a reminder that major market corrections can occur even when the earnings and economic growth backdrop is…

Highlights Our out-of-consensus call on oil prices - Brent and WTI are expected to trade to $65 and $63/bbl, respectively, next year - has the most upside risk from unplanned production outages in Iraq and Venezuela. The potential for…