Highlights China's ascendancy will increase U.S.-China tensions in the medium and long term; "Xi Jinping Thought" is China's rejection of Soviet-style collapse; Xi's new policies face very few domestic political…
Highlights Tipping points tend to occur when too many long-term value investors are uncharacteristically behaving like short-term momentum traders. Long IBEX35 versus Eurostoxx50 constitutes a good tactical trade. The underperformance…
Highlights Looking into 2018, the major risk factors driving gold - inflation and inflation expectations; fiscal and monetary policy; and geopolitics - will, on balance, continue to favor gold as a strategic portfolio hedge. We expect…
Dear Client, This week, in addition to this regular Geopolitical Strategy Weekly Report, we decided to send you a collaborative report we penned with BCA's Energy Sector Strategy. My colleague Matt Conlan runs the service, which…
Highlights Expect Spain's strong growth to fade somewhat as its credit impulse appears to have peaked. The Catalan independence debate is an inconvenience but not a long term tail-risk. Expect Italy's growth to pick up as the…
Highlights Catalonia is a red herring - stay focused on U.S. tax cuts; Tax cuts are on track and will swell the budget deficit; The dollar is poised for a comeback; Believe the Phillips Curve, not the "Amazon effect";…
Highlights Oil prices have hit our target, but more upside is likely. President Trump's tax proposal has arrived and the Trump trades have responded. Surging M&A activity is not a sign of a market top. The supports are all…
Highlights We highlighted last month that investors should remain slightly overweight risk assets, but should also hold safe havens given the preponderance of risks. Some of the risks have since faded and the sweet spot for equities is…