Highlights Geopolitical tensions eased last week, but there are still a few near term hurdles to clear. Domestic policy uncertainty remains. Investors still can't seem to reconcile the disconnect between weak "hard" data…
Dear Client, In addition to this abbreviated Weekly Report, I sent you a Special Report earlier today written by my colleague Mark McClellan of our monthly Bank Credit Analyst publication. Following up on many of the themes discussed in…
Highlights Despite cooperating to reduce oil production and drain global oil inventories, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Iran still compete at every level for dominance of the Gulf region's economic and geopolitical order. We…
Highlights Lean against depressed and euphoric interest rate expectations. The ECB will remove or fade the negative deposit rate, with an outside chance that it happens this year. The U.K. economy will determine the nature of Brexit…
Highlights Financial markets have returned to 'risk on' in late April, after becoming overly gloomy on the growth, political and policy outlooks in recent months. There are also some worrying signs in our global forward-…
Highlights Markets will survive late spring and summer unscathed; Macron will win the French election; Trump's agenda is not going down in flames; U.K. snap polls support our sanguine view on Brexit; Fade the rally in…
Highlights It is difficult to judge how much of the recent unwind of the Trump Trades has been due to data disappointments versus rising geopolitical tensions. We do not believe that an attack on North Korea is imminent. Rather, U.S.…
Highlights The U.S. dollar correction is entering its last innings as investors now only discount marginally more than one rate hike by the Fed over the next 12 months. The last leg of the USD's weakness is likely to be prompted…