Highlights Bonds are universally unloved. The economic 'mini-upswing' is extended. 6-month bank credit impulses have rolled over. Europe is entering a period of high-impact political events. Equities are universally loved…

Special Report

Highlights European populism is a red herring in 2017; France is a buy, Le Pen is overrated; Merkel's demise would be an opportunity, not a risk; Yet Italy poses a real risk - elections will be crucial; Moreover, Euro breakup…

Highlights The USD bull case is now well known by the market, but this is not strong enough a hurdle to end the dollar's run. The behavior of positioning, the U.S. basic balance of payments, interest rate expectations, and relative…

Special Report

Highlights In this report, we outline our tactical, cyclical and long term views on French government bonds, linked to France's political situation, cyclical dynamics, and structural outlook. Tactical View: Marine Le Pen does not…

Special Report

Highlights France is on the verge of pro-market structural reforms; Marine Le Pen will not win the presidency. Her odds are 15%; The French economic upswing will continue to surprise; Overweight French stocks relative to German;…

Highlights Three emerging macro factors bode poorly for Taiwan's growth outlook and asset prices. Despite the worrying economic and geopolitical backdrop, global investors appear complacent. Foreign ownership in Taiwanese stocks…

Highlights The U.S. has two geopolitical imperatives: domination of the world's oceans and ensuring the disunity of Eurasia; The Trump Doctrine, as currently defined, has no room for transatlantic alliances; President Trump is…

Table 1Recommended Allocation  The Reflation Trade Continues It is wrong to think that the recent rally in risk assets is mainly due to the election of President Donald Trump. Yes, since November 8, U.S. equities have risen by 7%…

Highlights President Trump is as protectionist as Candidate Trump; USD shortage to tighten global financial conditions; Go Long MXN/RMB as a tactical play on U.S.-China trade war; Brexit risks are now overstated; EU will not twist…