Special Report

Mr. X is a long-time BCA client who visits our offices towards the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation. Mr. X: What a year it has been. The…

Special Report

Theme 1 - Returning U.S. Animal Spirits: I Want To Break Free Animal spirits are making a comeback in the U.S. The catalyst for this development is the hope that a Trump administration will alleviate the regulatory burden that has been a…

Highlights The FOMC statement was somewhat more hawkish than expected. The Fed is on course to raise rates two to three times next year. Trump's policy views are squarely bearish for bonds, but more mixed for stocks. Investors are…

Recommendation Allocation  Highlights Growth was picking up before the election of President Trump. His election merely accelerates the rotation from monetary to fiscal policy. This is likely to cause yields to rise, the Fed to…

Special Report

Feature At no time in recent history have China's foreign reserves been under such tight scrutiny by global investors as they are now. The country's multi-trillion-dollar official reserve assets, long viewed by both Chinese…

Highlights Multipolarity will peak in 2017 - geopolitical risks are spiking; Globalization is giving way to zero-sum mercantilism; U.S.-China relations are the chief risk to global stability; Turkey is the most likely state to get…

Highlights Investors are understating the risks that the Trump administration will enact protectionist trade policies. Contrary to popular belief, the economic costs to the U.S. of a protracted "trade war" would be low. The…

Highlights ECB QE has pushed the euro area's Target2 banking imbalance to an all-time high. Thereby, QE has raised the cost of euro break-up. The ECB must dial down QE because the Target2 banking imbalance is directly related to…

Special Report

Highlights There are rising odds that Turkey will undertake military action in the Middle East. When and if this occurs, it will severely undermine already fragile investor confidence, and foreign capital inflows will evaporate. Feature…

Special Report

Highlights We update the long-term structural themes that we expect will be key drivers of financial market performance over the next one to five years, drawing investment conclusions from each. Debt Supercycle. The final stage of a…