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Highlights Despite a tough week, the dollar bull market is intact. The U.S. economy's resilience to a strong dollar is growing. But, if Trump wins, the dollar could temporarily sell off against EUR, CHF, and JPY. Favor these…
Special Report Highlights The U.S. presidential election is now too close to call. Hillary Clinton has a 61.6% chance of winning, according to our quant model. But Trump's real chances are approaching 50%, given momentum. Trump still trails in…
Special Report Highlights The U.S. presidential election is now too close to call. Hillary Clinton has a 61.6% chance of winning, according to our quant model. But Trump's real chances are approaching 50%, given momentum. Trump still trails in…
Special Report Highlights Clinton has a 65% chance of victory. She wins the election with 334 electoral votes. Trump has low odds of winning key swing states Virginia and Colorado. A Trump win requires a shock; it is not impossible by the…
Dear Client, This week, I am currently on the road visiting clients across Europe. We are sending you an abbreviated weekly report as well as a Special Report from our Geopolitical Strategy team entitled “U.S. Election: Final…
Highlights We expect the U.S. House of Representatives to remain in GOP hands, but the Democrats could take razor-thin control of the Senate if Clinton wins the Presidency. The current, market-bullish status quo of divided government…
Highlights The perceived shape of Brexit is the single most important driver of the pound and most U.K. assets. The U.K. Courts are due to deliver landmark legal rulings, which have huge implications for the perceived shape of Brexit…
Special Report Dear Client, I am on the road visiting clients in Toronto, Chicago, and Wisconsin this week, and as such there will be no regular Weekly Report. Instead, we are sending you a Special Report written by my colleague Marko Papic, Chief…
Highlights EM tech stocks are overbought while banks are fundamentally vulnerable due to bad-loan overhang. EM stocks have never decoupled from the U.S. dollar and commodities prices. There has been no recovery in EM corporate…
Special Report Highlights Muni Credit Cycle: The reading from our Municipal Health Monitor supports low Muni/Treasury yield ratios for now, but will become less supportive near the end of 2017. This is consistent with historical lags between the muni…