Highlights Our protector portfolio is a combination of assets that have a low or negative correlation with equities that give investors some downside protection. Replacing cash and/or Treasuries with our protector portfolio in 60-30-…
Hillary Clinton has a 65% chance of winning the election; she receives 334 electoral college votes according to our model. Trump still requires an exogenous shock to win. Meanwhile, the USD is poised to rally - and leftward-moving…
Our Treasury yield fair value model suggests that the 10-year Treasury yield has an additional +19bps of upside. Stay at below benchmark duration.
As the U.S. median voter is shifting to the left, redistributive policy could come into play. A strong dollar helps to achieve this goal as it results in a bigger share of labor income in the economy. EM and commodity currencies…
This month's Special Report looks at the Fed's policy options in the event that there is a negative economic shock while the policy rate is still very depressed. The Fed's "Plan A" is more QE and forward guidance, which are not up to…
The monetary policy sweet spot won't end for equities until interest rates climb above the equilibrium rate - that won't happen even with a rate hike in December. But even though equity markets will continue to cheer a go-slow Fed in…