Given that the seemingly unthinkable can actually happen, we reassess how financial markets price uncertainty, and whether the current pricing is correct.
Signs that the median voter is moving to the left are everywhere. Markets will cheer the move as it means more government spending. In the long term, it depends if policymakers stop at fiscal stimulus. In this Monthly Report, BCA's…
A spike in economic uncertainty explains the recent move lower in Treasury yields. Given the resilience of global growth, we expect yields to rise as uncertainty ebbs in the coming months.
Please see attached our Third Quarter Strategy Outlook which discusses the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of the year.
We test three channels of contagion from the Brexit shock: political, banking system, and economic.
Yield and Protector Portfolios should continue to benefit in current environment. Equities face seasonal headwinds.
A benchmark overall duration stance is still warranted, as central banks will maintain exceptionally accommodative monetary policies to offset potential Brexit-related shocks to confidence.