All three of Trump's signature policy proposals - increased deficit-financed infrastructure spending, a more restrictive immigration policy, and trade protectionism - are dollar bullish. These policies could cause the U.S. economy to…
Against a backdrop of continuing supply destruction, particularly in the U.S., and a pick-up in crude demand, markets will remain in balance this quarter and go into a deficit in 2016H2.
As the sole shock absorber left in the global economy, FX markets will grow more volatile. The currency market's reaction to the recent Fed minutes exemplifies this phenomenon. Despite its sores and blisters, the U.S. economy wins…
President Tsai's inauguration is unlikely to spark an immediate confrontation with the mainland, but heightened political uncertainty is a certainty, and some of the economic benefits that Taiwan gained in recent years from warming…
The Fed is accentuating bearish dynamics for the dollar over the next three to six months. The upcoming National Congress of the Communist Party of China provides Chinese authorities with an incentive to ramp up stimulus this year.…
Approaching the referendum on EU membership, what are the prospects for the U.K. economy and financial markets?
The reflation rally continues. Despite our bearish outlook for the year, we think the risks of the current rally lie to the upside given China's redoubling of stimulus at the expense of reform. Populist troubles are picking up in…