Several tail risks appear less ominous compared to last month. Nonetheless, the earnings outlook has not improved and the FOMC will turn more hawkish ahead of the June meeting. Stay defensively positioned.
The British pound may be prone to further weakness in the coming months as the odds of a Brexit rise.
Lower oil prices are aggravating financial and social stress in poorer OPEC states, particularly in Venezuela, where the government recently executed a gold-for-cash swap ahead of looming debt payments.
In recent travel, our clients remain focused on downside risks to today's range-bound markets. And for good reason. Uncertainty regarding Chinese reaction function is the biggest source of political risk in today's markets. We…
Expectations of a deepening EM/China growth slump and RMB depreciation have been the key to the selloff in global risk assets. There is no basis for these expectations to improve. Therefore, there are few fundamental reasons for EM…