Investors should focus on growth concerns rather than the “Trump trade.” Bond yields will fall in the short run due to cyclically disinflationary economic slowdown, rather than rise in anticipation of a Republican full sweep and…
As Trump’s victory odds rise, the underperformance of European equities deepens. How negative would a global trade war be for European assets?
Though hope springs eternal among global investors for big-bang stimulus from Beijing, the closely watched Third Plenum adjourned without any specific prescriptions to reverse China’s economic slump. The communiqu…
Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.
Marko Papic, a pioneer in using geopolitics as an essential component of investment strategy, has returned to BCA, where he founded Geopolitical Strategy, the world’s first dedicated investment consultancy focused on…
GeoMacro’s monthly Beta Report will typically perform deep dives into the most pressing macro topics of the moment. For its debut, however, it turns the microscope on its own process, explaining the team’s framework…
On Monday morning, both election betting markets and financial markets reacted to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump that occurred over the weekend. Predictably, the betting odds that Trump will win the presidency in…
The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?
The cyclical economy is slowing today. Republicans are now more likely to win a full sweep, crack down on immigration and trade, and at least modestly stimulate the economy. Uncertainty and volatility will rise.
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, investors are overstating the degree to which bond yields will rise under a Trump presidency. For one thing, the team expects the US to fall into recession…