A global economic downturn will be a headwind for natgas prices over the cyclical horizon. Thereafter, LNG capacity additions will help keep the market in balance into the end of the decade. That said, Europe’s increased dependence…
South African stocks, domestic bonds, and currency have all rallied since BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team upgraded South African assets last month following the formation of the new national unity government. The rally…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the sharp underperformance of the French stock market over political uncertainty is irrational, given the CAC 40’s limited exposure to French domestic economics and…
Investors in European sovereign bonds should find solace that continental voters are not turning away from support for EU integration. As such, populist parties are not really that “far” left or right. And as long as they want to…
France’s snap election is over and, according to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble paid off in some ways: neither the far right nor the far left can form a…
At first glance, France has moved to the far left. However, this coalition is fragile, and Macron’s allies still hold the balance of power. What are the assets that will benefit from this new political setup, and those that will not…
The Labour Party won the UK election, just as BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service predicted back in 2022. However, this win is unlikely to rock the proverbial geopolitical boat. Popular enthusiasm for Sir Keir…
The new Labour government will have flexibility to respond to macro shocks, which is positive for the UK in general, namely GBP-EUR, and also gilts in absolute terms. But over the long run, tax hikes will likely surprise to the…
Does the incipient slowdown in European data herald a soft landing and a goldilocks period for equities? We have our doubts.
BCA Research’s newly launched GeoMacro Strategy service presents the User’s Manual in its inaugural report navigating the differences between Geopolitical alpha and beta. What is the difference between geopolitical…