According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy and Geopolitical Strategy services, there are several avenues for tensions between Israel and Iran to escalate. Investors need to hedge against a 30% risk of a…
The implication is that Israel chose not to escalate the risk of direct war with Iran. Hence we remain in our base-case “Minor War, Minor Oil Shock” scenario.
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the US-Russia conflict will re-escalate pre-election. Russia has taken 18% of Ukraine’s territory but has not yet clinched its victory. The western powers…
Our quant models suggest Democrats are still slightly favored for the White House. Our Senate model favors Republican control, though Montana and Ohio are the weak links that could deliver Democrats a de facto Senate majority in the…
UK stocks posted one of the largest positive abnormal returns (z-score) among the major financial markets we tracked in March. The MSCI UK index has gained 2% relative to Eurozone stocks since late February. However, the…
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and…
Financial markets appear unphased by the increase in Mideast tensions that occurred with Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel over the weekend. Most notably, crude oil prices declined on Monday, suggesting that investors are…
Stay overweight US equities versus world, long US energy sector versus Middle East stocks, and long Canada and Mexico versus global-ex-US stocks.
Copper markets are fast approaching a price breakout, as Chinese smelters scramble to find ore to meet increasing refined-copper demand in the wake of a global manufacturing rebound. We are holding fast to our expectation of $4.50/lb…
Oil prices surged over the past two days on the back of heightened geopolitical risks to supply following increased tensions in the Middle East. Both Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi…