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Geopolitics

The US Has A House Speaker, What Now?
The US House of Representatives finally got a Speaker, but according to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, his voting record indicates that he will be a populist hardliner, which increases the chance that there will be a government shutdown. …
Daily Insights
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Showdown In The Middle East, Shutdown In DC

Stronger US growth elicits a response from the House Republicans. But a government shutdown is not devastating to the economy. What is more devastating would be a crisis in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Stay long US defense, energy, and large caps stocks.

US Political Strategy by Jesse Anak Kuri
Geopolitical Risks Provide A Tailwind For Gold
The price of gold has rallied by 9.2% since October 5, reaching a 5-month high by Wednesday's close. Notably, this latest rally comes despite real bond yields having been trending higher for the past two weeks. Given that higher bond yields typically weigh…
Daily Insights
Using Equity Analyzer To Navigate The Middle East Conflict
In a recent report, BCA Research’s Equity Analyzer service proposes two strategies to help investors navigate the conflict in the Middle East. The  first strategy uses the “Macro Sensitivities” filter on the platform to create a market diversified…
Daily Insights
Scrutinizing Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical risk is returning to the market after a hiatus for most of 2023. Global investors are now realizing what our geopolitical strategists have argued all year: that the rise in geopolitical risk is a secular trend stemming from the…
Daily Insights
What The US Banks See
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service studied the SIFIs’ earnings calls for insights into borrower performance, lender willingness, liquidity and the actions and intentions of households and businesses.  Nothing in the banks’ commentary…
Daily Insights
Higher Uncertainty Leaves Oil Forecast Unchanged
Our Commodity & Energy Strategy colleagues (CES) left their 2024 Brent crude oil price forecast unchanged at $118/bbl.  This is not because nothing’s changed in the market.  Rather, higher levels of uncertainty bring with them offsetting risks,…
Daily Insights
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Quantum Uncertainty Keeps Oil Forecast Unch

Despite higher uncertainty, our Brent price forecasts remain unchanged at just over $101/bbl for 4Q23 and $118/bbl for next year. We remain long equity exposure to oil and gas producers via the XOP ETF, and commodity exposure via the COMT ETF. We also remain long $100 Dec24 Brent calls and long 1Q24 Brent futures vs. short 1Q25 Brent futures in anticipation of stronger backwardation.

Commodity & Energy Strategy
Trump's Dominance In The Primary Election: Investment Implications
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Trump is lined up to win the Republican presidential nomination by March 19, 2024. The takeaway is greater risk of party change, higher US and global policy uncertainty, and higher US equity…
Daily Insights
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The Math Behind Trump’s Nomination

More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma

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