Slowing manufacturing PMI indices globally indicate the slowdown in economic activity will persist. Manufacturing demand for commodities will also soften, weighing on industrial commodity prices. Geopolitical tensions and the race to…
The Biden administration reached out to China to try to reduce tensions over the month of May, attracting interest from the investment community, though our Geopolitical Strategists believe the US and China cannot agree to a…
Expectations for oil demand growth through 2023-24 are way too optimistic. Until these expectations fall to -0.5-1 percent, the oil price has further downside. Plus: collapsed complexity confirms that AI is in a mania, while basic…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, despite temporary hurdles, the longer-term trends support an overweight in Defense. Global military spending is poised for significant increases as the world system…
President Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party emerged as the winner of the Turkish general election which was concluded yesterday. This victory means that their expansive policies of the past decade will continue, and…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, in game theoretical terms, the debt ceiling standoff is the Parent-Child game, in which ‘the child’ can be good or bad, and ‘the parent’ can punish…
The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only if it implies economic pain. For the Republicans, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling unless the Democrats cut spending a lot, or unless the economy starts to…
Investors should expect high volatility and a selloff in US stocks over the short run due to the higher-than-usual risk of technical default. Investors should seek shelter in defensive sectors and large cap stocks. Long-dated…