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Geopolitics

US Government Shutdown Looming
Investors are wondering about the risk of a US government shutdown as the September 30 deadline draws near. Would a shutdown be a significant negative catalyst for the stock market? While there is a high risk of a government shutdown, there are more…
Daily Insights
China’s Youth Unemployment Is A Regime Risk
The Chinese government today announced that it is suspending the reporting of urban youth unemployment rate. This rate reached 21.3% in June after climbing since December. While there is an element of seasonality to the data – as youth unemployment rate…
Daily Insights
China’s Foreign Policy Fire and Ice
On Monday, Asia Pacific equity markets closed in the red due to the news that China’s largest real estate developer, Country Garden, is suspending the trading of some of its bonds. This recent episode is a continuation of Chinese economic woes, which our…
Daily Insights
What To Do With Semis, Growth, And Energy

Outperformance of Growth sectors most likely has run its course. It is time to shift Growth vs. Value allocation to neutral, downgrade Semis, and upgrade Energy to overweight.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
China: Implications Of US Tech Ban
On Wednesday, President Joe Biden announced that a new ban on some US investment into China’s quantum computing, advanced chips and artificial intelligence sectors will come into force next year. This latest escalation is consistent with our Geopolitical…
Daily Insights
Beware Geopolitical Risk
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, investors should stay overweight low-beta assets. Geopolitical risk is likely to stay elevated in Asia Pacific in the coming months. Mainland China faces debt-deflation, poor governance, and a…
Daily Insights
Not Immaculate (GeoRisk Update)

The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta assets.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
US Policy Uncertainty Is About To Rebound
President Joe Biden’s approval rating trended down from a peak in February this year of 45.8% to the current level of 42.1%. Meanwhile his disapproval rating rose from a trough of 50.9% to its current 54.3%. The negative trend is worrisome for the Biden…
Daily Insights
A Russian Oil Embargo?
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy and Geopolitical Strategy services, Russia is likely to cut oil production to pressure the West as a part of its war effort. This cut would push oil prices to above $90/bbl, in line with the team’s…
Daily Insights
Russian Oil Embargo?

The odds of Russia cutting oil output will rise going into 4Q23, as Ukraine’s endgame increases pressure on it, and it actively seeks to undermine President Biden’s re-election. We reckon a 2mm b/d cut would push Brent above $140/bbl by December 2024. This would push inflation and inflation expectations higher and raise the odds of more Fed rate hikes. BCA Commodity & Energy Strategy will remain long the COMT and XOP ETFs. At tonight’s close, we will be getting long December 2024 $100/bbl Brent calls.

Commodity & Energy Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken

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