Our best calls of the year were long defensives over cyclicals, short Russia and emerging Europe, long aerospace/defense, short Greater China, and long Latin America. Our worst call of the year was long cyber security stocks.
The S&P 500 is down by 17% year to date, while our portfolio is up 15%. US political analysis is essential for investors but it is best done by geopolitical method rather than Washington punditry.
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Russia’s presidential election of March 2024 will put pressure on Vladimir Putin to negotiate a ceasefire before that time. Putin faces his fifth…
The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and…
Chinese social unrest will be suppressed first, then the government will relax policies to stabilize the economy. We are reducing our 4Q22 Brent forecast to $85/bbl as a result of the short-term negative news, but maintaining our $…
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2023. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and…