BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service expects Russia’s conflict with the West to escalate and trigger more bad news for risky assets this fall. The “balance of terror” is a variation on…
Russia’s conflict with the West will escalate and trigger more bad news for risky assets this fall. Beyond that, stalemate looms. Latin American equities present a potential opportunity once the macro and geopolitical backdrop…
Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while…
In Section I, we note that the Fed’s new interest rate projections show that US monetary policy is set to rise soon into restrictive territory even relative to what we consider to be the neutral rate of interest, and to a level that…
Executive Summary Biden And Democrats Arrest Fall In Public Opinion US policy is essential to the global macro, policy, and geopolitical outlook in the fourth quarter. Our three key views for 2022 are still in place: the…
Italy’s right-wing coalition led by Giorgia Meloni of the far-right Brothers of Italy party –which also includes the League and Forza Italia – secured 44% of the vote in Sunday’s general election. Italian…
BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service concludes that investors should favor the US dollar and the euro over the Chinese renminbi and Taiwanese dollar. Many investors speculate that China’s…
Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and…
Executive Summary Inflation Surprise Reinforces Gridlock And Fiscal Drag A US recession is increasingly likely as the Fed will have to hike rates more aggressively in the short run to contain inflation. Recession would…