BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service’s subjective odds of a US-Iran deal are 40%. They believe that the risk of failure is being underrated. The 2015 deal occurred in a context of Iranian strategic…
Executive Summary US Military Constraint: Strait Of Hormuz A US-Iran deal would make for a notable improvement in the geopolitical backdrop during an otherwise gloomy year. It would remove the risk of a major new oil shock…
Dear Client, We will not be publishing the Commodity & Energy Strategy next week, as I will be participating in a panel discussion with Dr. Bassam Fattouh, Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), which will focus…
Dear Clients, Next week we will attend the BCA Investment Conference in New York. Therefore we will not publish our regular report. We will resume regular publication in the week of September 12. We apologize in advance for any…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis has only just begun. Tensions can still deal nasty surprises to global investors. The previous three crises ranged from four to…
Executive Summary Our negative view on the summer rally is coming to fruition, with equities falling back on the negative geopolitical, macro, and monetary environment. China is easing policy ahead of its full return to autocratic…
Executive Summary Reshoring And FDI Job Creation Have Accelerated After The Pandemic The US is entering a period of an industrial boom thanks to limited manufacturing capacity paired with strong demand for…
BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service concludes that negative surprises in the form of social unrest, political violence, and domestic terrorism usually cause only a short-term spike in financial market volatility. A…
Executive Summary US Support For A Military Coup? A confluence of structural and cyclical factors makes the US highly prone to social and political instability, as in 2020. Today’s stagflationary economic…