Executive Summary US Support For A Military Coup? A confluence of structural and cyclical factors makes the US highly prone to social and political instability, as in 2020. Today’s stagflationary economic…
Executive Summary Russia’s Crude Oil Output Will Fall Russia will have to lower oil production to ensure output it hasn’t placed with non-EU buyers does not tax its limited storage facilities, ahead of the bloc’s…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical strategy service, the odds of WWIII could be as high as 20% over the next two-years. The team presents a series of “decision trees” to formalize different scenarios…
Executive Summary Oil Markets Remain Tight US and Iranian negotiators received an EU proposal for reviving the Iran nuclear deal on Monday, which could return ~ 1mm b/d of oil to markets. The EU’s embargo of…
Executive Summary Biden Taps China-Bashing Consensus House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan reflects one of our emerging views in 2022: the Biden administration’s willingness to take foreign policy risks…
BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service concludes that the US-China confrontation over Taiwan could cause a dramatic escalation in strategic tensions. Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi arrived…
Executive Summary Biden Can Take Risks Ahead Of Midterms News reports suggest House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will travel to Taiwan and meet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in the coming days. China has promised military…
Executive Summary Italy’s right-wing alliance, led by Brothers of Italy, will likely outperform in the upcoming election. The new government will prioritize the economy, posing a risk to the EU’s united front…