China’s aggressive retaliation against U.S. tariffs will enable President Trump to shift from punishing allies and redirect the trade war toward China. If Beijing does not react to the latest tariffs by doubling its fiscal stimulus,…
President Trump imposed tariffs on the world in his first 100 days, as we expected. Tariffs may have catalyzed a recession in the US, given the weakness in consumer sentiment and demand. Trump will soon backpedal and grant exemptions…
Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European…
Trump's Tariff D-Day brings a negative surprise to financial markets already anxious over a declining US cyclical economy. Investors should sell risky assets, increase safe havens, and overweight US assets in the near term.
Markets may be bracing for April 2, but the real surprise could be how unsurprising it ends up being. Our Chart Of The Week comes from GeoMacro Chief Strategist Marko Papic, who sees the looming tariff salvo as the peak of de-…
Stocks will continue to struggle in the second quarter as President Trump tries to implement tariffs. Tax cuts will only temporarily dispel growth fears, if at all. Middle Eastern instability will add oil price surprises to an…
Our tactical framework highlights how financial conditions and economic surprises interact, where growth often sows the seeds of its own demise. Markets price expectations efficiently but lack perfect foresight, making data surprises…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist of our European Investment Strategy service. Mathieu believes the recent outperformance of European over US risk assets is unlikely to last over the next 3-6 months.…
Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.