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Executive Summary Long Small Cap Energy Versus Large Cap   President Biden has not received a boost in opinion polls from the Ukraine war. If he has not by now then it is increasingly unlikely that he will do so. Yet Biden…
  According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, investors need answers to three questions about US policy at the moment: 1.   Will President Biden’s reaction to the Ukraine war exacerbate the…
Special Report Executive Summary Cheap Or Expensive?  President Emmanuel Macron will be re-elected.French growth will slow in the coming quarters but will also remain solid beyond that horizon.France’s reform push will continue, particularly pension…
Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds  Macroeconomic Outlook: Global growth will reaccelerate in the second half of this year provided a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached. Inflation will temporarily come…
Special Report Highlights There is no evidence of a decline in US corporate credit or bank lending spreads over the past few decades, meaning that any excess savings effect structurally depressing interest rates is occurring in the Treasury market. We…
Executive Summary Energy and National Security Will Drive the Market  Our 2022 key views are broadly on track. Biden’s shift from domestic to foreign policy is dominating the other views.   However,…
Executive Summary Expansion In European Defense  European yields have significant upside on a structural basis. European government spending will remain generous, which will boost domestic demand; meanwhile, lower global…
  According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, investors should favor bourses that are least exposed to the secular US geopolitical conflict with Russia and China. The US cannot defeat China in a war, so it…
Special Report Executive Summary The Good: There are compelling reasons to believe the Ukraine war will not break out into a broader NATO-Russia war, i.e. World War III. The Bad: The 1945 peace settlement is breaking down and the world is…
Executive Summary Biden’s Low Approval On Foreign Policy     The energy shock stemming from President Biden’s foreign policy challenges could get worse, especially if US-Iran talks fail. The energy and inflation…