Executive Summary Russia Not Prepared To Invade West Ukraine Yet Russia is escalating its aggressiveness in Ukraine, marked by the shelling of a nuclear power station, troop reinforcements, and rhetorical threats of nuclear…
Russia's oil and gas exports last year accounted for almost 40% of the government's budget. According to Russia's central bank, crude and product revenue last year amounted to just under $180 billion, while pipeline…
Executive Summary We look at the Ukraine crisis in the broader context of shocks, what we can learn from them, and how we can incorporate them into our strategy for investment, and life in general. Our high-conviction view is that the…
Executive Summary Russian Stocks Are Breaking Below Their 2008 And 2015 Lows The Kremlin will not halt its military operations in Ukraine for now. The strategic objective of Putin is to bring Ukraine back into its…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be dashed. The conflict will worsen over the coming days. As was the case during the…
Executive Summary Wars Don’t Usually Affect Markets For Long We expect the war in Ukraine to stay within its borders, and therefore to have little impact on global growth. Markets will be volatile, but we recommend…
Executive Summary Hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be dashed. The conflict will worsen over the coming days. As was the case during the original Cold War, both sides will eventually forge an…
Executive Summary Stronger Capex Than Last Decade The fog of war continues, but the worst potential outcome for the market—a freeze of Russian energy exports to Europe—has been avoided. Energy inflation is…
Dear client, In addition to this weekly report, we sent you a Special Report from our Geopolitical Strategy service, highlighting the risk from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Kind regards, Chester Executive Summary The Ukraine…
Highlights The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a geopolitical incident that is likely to be limited in scope. A wholesale energy cutoff to Europe is the chief risk to global economic activity, but the sanction response from the US and EU…