Geopolitics

Executive Summary Stronger Capex Than Last Decade The fog of war continues, but the worst potential outcome for the market—a freeze of Russian energy exports to Europe—has been avoided. Energy inflation is reaching its apex. Markets will remain volatile in the near term as uncertainty remains elevated in the coming days. Moreover, a transition from a recovery driven by consumer durable goods to services remains a hurdle against near-term European outperformance. Italian bonds and European banks are attractive, but it is not yet prudent to plunge headfirst into the euro. The longer-term consequences of the conflicts point toward greater capex and public deficits in Europe. This will boost the neutral rate of interest and European yields. Industrials and defense stocks are also key structural beneficiaries. Bottom Line: Keep hedges in place for the near term, as uncertainty remains rife. Buy Italian bonds and European banks, which will benefit from ECB support. Industrials still face near-term hurdles but should be a structural overweight position in European equity portfolios, along with financials and defense stocks. Feature The situation in Ukraine is reaching a climax. Following Russia’s recognition of the breakaway Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (LPR and DPR) and its invasion of Ukraine, the S&P 500 entered correction territory. Importantly, the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is now down 10% since its January 5th high, which validates our repeated call over the past four weeks to hedge risk asset portfolios by selling EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY. An international conflict has begun and a human tragedy is unfolding; but, at the time of writing, it looks like the worst-case scenario for markets will be avoided. Germany is folding Nord Stream 2 indeterminably and Western allies have imposed painful economic sanctions on Russia. However, an expulsion of the SWIFT payment system is not in the cards. This is crucial because it greatly limits the risk that Russia will stop sending natural gas and oil to the EU. Ultimately, neither Russia nor the EU wants this outcome, since it imposes an enormous loss of revenues on the former (which needs hard currency to finance its war) and guarantees a recession for the latter (Chart 1). The war will still cost Europe. European natural gas prices surged again on Thursday, rising by more than 60% intraday. While a spike above EUR200/MWh is unlikely in the absence of an oil embargo, 20% of European natural gas imports pass through Ukraine. The conflict suggests that these flows will remain disrupted for now and that natural gas prices will remain between EUR80/MWh and EUR100/MWh for the next few months. This translates into elevated energy and electricity costs for the EU (Chart 2). Chart 1A European Recession Averted Chart 2Peaking But Elevated Chart 3Ebbing Energy Inflation Oil markets are set to peak soon. The run-up in Brent prices in recent weeks was largely driven by geopolitical concerns. With the odds of an oil embargo declining, the pressure on Brent will also recede. Bob Ryan, BCA’s commodity and energy strategist, believes that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait will increase their own production in coming weeks to burnish their credentials as reliable oil producers, especially if oil experiences more turmoil.  Bob expects crude prices to drop to $85/bbl by the second half of 2022. These dynamics are important because they imply that European headline inflation will soon peak. Yes, the recent spike in natural gas prices will keep energy inflation higher for a few more months, but, ultimately, ebbing base effects will bring down energy CPI. As Chart 3 highlights, even if Brent and natural gas prices stay at today’s levels for the remainder of the year, their year-on-year inflation rates will collapse, which will drive HICP lower. Near-Term Market Dynamics In this context, what to do with European assets? It is probably still too early to abandon our hedges, but we will likely do so next week or soon after. While the market has probably bottomed, prudence remains of prime consideration as a war is taking place and the situation on the ground may deteriorate. Chart 4A Buying Opportunity The clearest near-term investment implication comes for European peripheral bonds. Italian spreads have widened significantly in the wake of the hawkish pivot by the ECB (Chart 4). However, we argued that, when interest rate expectations priced in 50bps of the hike for 2022, the move was excessive and that only one ECB hike in the fourth quarter was likely this year. Now that the Ukrainian crisis is reaching a climax, even some of the ECB’s most hawkish members, such as Robert Holzmann, Governor of the Austrian National Bank, indicate that the removal of liquidity will be slower than originally anticipated. This means that the ECB is likely to continue to backstop the European peripheral bond markets. Italian and Greek bonds, which offer spreads of 165bps and 249bps over German bunds, are appealing in light of this explicit backstop. European financials are another attractive buy. Investors should buy banks outright. As Chart 5 highlights, all the major Eurozone countries’ banking stocks have suffered widespread selloffs. However, the exposure to Russian debt is limited at $67 billion (Chart 6). Additionally, the European yield curve slope is unlikely to flatten significantly from here. The ECB will limit the upside in the German 2-year yields by not hiking until Q4 2022, while the terminal rate proxy in Europe has significant upside from here. A steeper yield curve will boost the appeal of banks, especially in a context in which peripheral spreads are likely to narrow. Chart 5Too Much Of A Dive Chart 6Limited Russian Exposure The outlook for the euro is more complex. Narrower peripheral spreads would boost the euro’s appeal, a cheap currency currently trading at a 17% discount to its PPP fair value. EUR/USD also trades at a 5% discount to the BCA Intermediate-Term Timing Model, which suggests that considerable bad news is already embedded in the exchange rate (Chart 7). The fact that the EUR/USD did not close below its January 27th low in the face of a major war on European soil adds to the notion that the euro already embeds a significant risk premium. However, there are still ample reasons to worry about additional volatility in the coming week or so. The ECB is sounding less hawkish, while the Fed is not changing its tone. Meanwhile, 1-month and 3-month risk reversals are not at levels consistent with a bearish capitulation, which suggests that the euro could suffer one last wave of liquidation (Chart 8). Thus, we are not buying the euro yet and are willing to forego the first few cents of gains for a clearer signal. Chart 7EUR/USD Is Cheap Chart 8Sentiment Could Get More Negative Circling back to the equity front, European equities had become very oversold after the 14-day RSI fell below 30. The diminishing risk of an energy crisis will also help. However, global equities face more risks than just Ukraine. As we wrote earlier this week, the transition away from consumer durable goods as the driver of global growth to services will involve some adjustments for stocks, especially in an environment in which the Fed is allowing global monetary conditions to deteriorate (Chart 9). Thus, the window of volatility in stocks is unlikely to close in the near term. The relative performance of European equities vis-a-vis the US is complex as well. European equities have undone most of the relative gains accrued so far in 2022 (Chart 10). On the one hand, the global growth transition will hurt European equities more than US ones, as a result of their greater exposure to manufacturing activity. Additionally, high energy costs are more of a problem for Europe right now than the US. On the other hand, the continued hawkishness of the Fed is likely to limit the ability of tech stocks to extend the rebound that began last Thursday. As a result, the most likely pattern is for some churning in the relative performance of Europe and the US in the coming week. Chart 10Vanishing Outperformance Chart 9Tightening US Liquidity Conditions For the remainder of the year, we expect the European equity outperformance to re-establish itself in view of the favorable relative profits picture for 2022, a topic that we will explore more deeply in the coming weeks. Bottom Line: The near-term outlook for European assets remains extremely murky. Not only is a war in Ukraine a major threat that can hurt sentiment further, but European assets still have to handle the short-term implications of a change in global growth leadership away from goods consumption. Nonetheless, the dovish message of the ECB in the wake of the Ukrainian invasion suggests that the collapse in Italian bonds and European banks in recent weeks is overdone. European stocks will likely continue to churn against US stocks in the near term but outperform for the remainder of the year. The sell-off in the euro is advanced, but prudence prevents us from buying EUR/USD today. Keep short EUR/CHF and short EUR/JPY hedges in place for now. Longer-Term Implications The crisis in Ukraine heightens Europe’s need to diversify its energy sourcing away from Russia. However, this is not a transition that can be executed on a dime. It will take years. For now, Europe remains dependent on Russian energy, which greatly limits the EU’s options. However, time offers many more possibilities. First, kicking Russia out of SWIFT will become feasible, because it will increase the robustness of the SPFS payment system, allowing Russia to receive funds for its energy, even if it is out of SWIFT. Second, and most importantly, time will allow Europe to find new energy sources. For example, Qatari LNG is often mentioned as a potential replacement for Russian natural gas. Qatar currently does not have the capacity to service Europe extensively, while fulfilling its previous contractual obligations, but the expansion of the production in its North Field East will increase capacity to 126MTPA by 2027. The LNG export capacity of the US may also increase over the coming years. Even if Qatar and the US could send enough LNG to satisfy the hole left by Russia tomorrow, Europe would not be able to accept delivery, as it does not have enough terminals to accommodate these shipments. Thus, investments in that sector will expand. Chart 11The Renewables Envelope Will Expand Chart 12Nuclear Skepticism Remains Most importantly, Europe will accelerate its transition toward renewable energy. Renewables are already a major focus of the NGEU program (Chart 11). However, we expect that, for the remainder of the decade, the NGEU program will be enlarged to allow greater investments in that space. Not only does it fit European green goals, but this policy would also increase the region energy security. More investment in nuclear electricity production is also possible but lacks popular support (Chart 12). The main message of these observations is that European infrastructure spending is likely to remain elevated in the coming years. As a result, industrial stocks may face some near-term headwinds as the global economy transitions away from the consumer goods-buying binge of COVID-19, but they will ultimately benefit greatly from an expansion of the capital stock around the world. Another long-term theme derived from the current crisis is that European defense stocks will fare well on a structural basis. The current crisis will force greater European unity. The presence of a common enemy will incentivize European nations to increase military spending, especially as the US continues to pivot toward Asia. Investors should overweight these stocks. In terms of bond market developments, more military spending and investment in energy infrastructures means that European budget deficits will be wider than if the Ukrainian crisis had not emerged. More accommodative fiscal policy will support aggregate demand, which will feed through greater capex (Chart 13). Thus, the experience of the last decade, whereby aggregate demand was curtailed by unnecessarily stringent European fiscal policy, will not be repeated. This confirms our expectation that the neutral rate of interest will rise in Europe and that Europe will escape an environment of zero rates (Chart 14). Therefore, German bunds yields have upside, the yield curve can steepen, and the outlook for European financials is positive on a long-term basis, not just on a near-term one. Chart 13Stronger Capex Than Last Decade... Chart 14...Means Higher Yields And A steeper Curve Chart 15Ebbing Fixed-Income Outflows? Finally, the picture for the euro is murky. On the one hand, its inexpensiveness is a major advantage while a higher neutral rate of interest will limit the European fixed-income outflows that have plagues the Euro for the past decade (Chart 15). However, if we are correct that European capex will increase and that budget deficits will remain wider than in the last decade, this also means that the European current account surplus will narrow as excess savings recede. This implies that one of the key underpinnings of the euro will dissipate. In the end, productivity will be the long-term arbiter of the exchange rate. Europe still lags behind the US on this front, which augurs poorly for the performance of the euro (Chart 16). Reforms and capex may save the day, but it is too early to make this call. Chart 16The Productivity Handicap​​​​​​​ Bottom Line: The events in Ukraine portend a structural shift in European capex. Europe will need to ween itself off its Russian energy dependency, which will require major investments in LNG facilities and renewable power. Moreover, European defense spending will rise. These will continue to support fiscal and infrastructure spending. As a result, industrials will benefit from a structural tailwind, as will European defense stocks. These same forces will put upward pressure on European risk-free yields, which will benefit beleaguered European financials and banks. The long-term outlook for the euro is murkier. More research must be conducted before making a definitive directional bet.   Mathieu Savary, Chief European Strategist Mathieu@bcaresearch.com Tactical Recommendations Cyclical Recommendations Structural Recommendations

Dear client, In addition to this weekly report, we sent you a Special Report from our Geopolitical Strategy service, highlighting the risk from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Kind regards, Chester Executive Summary The Ukraine crisis will lead to a period of strength for the DXY. Countries requiring foreign capital will be most at risk from an escalation in tensions. Portfolio flows have reaccelerated into the US, on the back of a rise in Treasury yields. This will be sustained in the near term. The euro area on the other hand has already witnessed significant portfolio outflows, on the back of Russo-Ukrainian tensions and an energy crisis. Countries with balance of payment surpluses like Switzerland and Australia are good havens amidst the carnage. Oil-producing countries such as Norway and Canada have also seen an improvement in their balance of payments, on the back of a strong terms-of-trade tailwind. This will be sustained in the near term. Balance Of Payments Across The G10 Bottom Line: The dollar is king in a risk-off environment. That said, the US and the UK sport the worst balance of payments backdrops, while Norway, Switzerland, and Sweden have the best. This underpins our long-term preference for Scandinavian currencies in an FX portfolio. In the near term, we think the DXY will peak near 98-100, but volatility will swamp fundamental biases. Feature Chart 1The US Runs A Sizeable Deficit The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to dictate near-term FX movements. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the risk of escalation and/or a miscalculation has risen. FX volatility is increasing sharply, and with it, the risk of a further selloff in currencies dependent on foreign capital inflows. As a reserve currency, the dollar has also been strong. It is difficult to ascertain how this imbroglio will end. However, in this week’s report, we look at which currencies are most vulnerable (and likely to stay vulnerable) from a balance of payments standpoint. Chart 1 plots the basic balance – the sum of the current account balance and foreign investment – across G10 countries. It shows that at first blush, Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, and Australia are the most resilient from a funding standpoint, while New Zealand, the UK, and the US are the most vulnerable. In Chart 2, we rank G10 currencies on eight different criteria: The basic balance, which we highlighted above. Real interest rate differentials, using the 10-year tenor and headline inflation. Relative growth fundamentals, as measured by the Markit manufacturing PMI. Three fair value models which we use in-house. The first is our Purchasing Power Parity model, which adjusts consumption basket weights across the G10 to reflect a more apples-to-apples comparison. The second is our long-term fair value model (LTFV), which adjusts for productivity differentials between countries; and the final is our intermediate-term timing model (ITTM), which separates procyclical from safe-haven currencies by including a risk factor such as corporate spreads. All three models are equally weighted in our rankings. The net international investment position (NIIP), which highlights currencies that are most likely to witness either repatriation flows or a positive income balance in the current account. Finally, net speculative positioning, which tells us which currencies have crowded long positions, and which ones sport a consensus sell. Chart 2The Scandinavian Currencies Are Attractive The conclusions from this chart are similar to our basic balance scenario – NOK, SEK, AUD, CHF, and JPY stand out as winners while GBP, NZD, and USD are the least attractive. The US dollar is a special case given its reserve currency status, with a persistent balance of payments deficit. The rise in the greenback amidst market volatility is a case in point. However, portfolio flows into the dollar also tend to be cyclical, so a resolution in the Ukraine/Russia conflict will put a cap on inflows. Equity portfolio flows had dominated financing of the US current account deficit but are relapsing (Chart 3). Bond portfolio flows have rebounded on the back of rising US yields, but US TIPS yields remain very low by historical standards (Chart 4). If they do not improve much further, specifically relative to other developed markets, it will be tough to justify further inflows into US Treasurys. Chart 3Equity Portfolio Flows Into The US Are Relapsing Chart 4Bond Portfolio Flows Into The US Are Strong In this week’s report, we look at the key drivers of balance of payments dynamics across the G10, starting with the US, especially amidst a scenario where the forfeit of foreign capital could come to the fore. United States Chart 5US Balance Of Payments The US trade deficit continues to hit record lows at -$80.7 billion for the month of December. Over the last few years, it has become increasingly difficult to fund this widening trade deficit via foreign purchases of US Treasurys. A positive net income balance has allowed a slower deterioration in the US current account balance, though at -$214.8 billion for Q3, it remains close to record lows. The overall picture for both the trade and current account balance is more benign as a share of GDP, given robust GDP growth (Chart 5). That said, as a share of GDP, the trade balance stands at -3.5%, the worst in over a decade. Foreign direct investment into the US has been improving of late. This probably reflects an onshoring of manufacturing, triggered by the Covid-19 crisis. That said, despite this improvement, the US still sports a negative net FDI backdrop. In a nutshell, the basic balance in the US (the sum of the current account and foreign direct investment) is still deteriorating. The dollar tends to decline on a multi-year basis when the basic balance peaks and starts worsening.       Euro Area Chart 6Euro Area Balance Of Payments The trade balance in the euro area has significantly deteriorated in recent quarters, on the back of an escalating energy crisis. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks the cherry on top. On a rolling 12-month basis, the trade surplus has fallen to 1% of GDP (Chart 6). This is particularly telling since for the month of December, the trade balance came in at €-4.6 billion, the worst since the euro area debt crisis. The current account continues to post a surplus of 2.6% of GDP, on the back of a positive income balance. However, FDI inflows are relapsing. After about two decades of underinvestment in the euro area, FDI inflows were at their highest level, to the tune of about 2% of GDP in 2021. Those have now completely reversed on the back of uncertainty. The combination of an energy crisis and dwindling FDI is crushing the euro area’s basic balance surplus. A rising basic balance surplus has been one of the key pillars underpinning a bullish euro thesis. Should the deterioration continue, it will undermine our longer-term bullish stance on the euro. It is encouraging that portfolio investments have turned less negative in recent quarters, as bond yields in the euro area are rising. Should this continue, it will be a good offset to the deterioration in FDI.   Japan Chart 7Japan Balance Of Payments Like the euro area, the trade balance in Japan continues to be severely hampered by rising energy imports. The trade deficit in January deteriorated to a near record of ¥2.2 trillion, even though export growth remained very robust. Income receipts from Japan’s large investment positions abroad continue to buffer the current account, but a resolution to the energy crisis will be necessary to stem Japan’s basic balance from deteriorating (Chart 7). The process of offshoring has sharply reversed since the Covid-19 crisis. While FDI is still deteriorating, it now stands at -2.4% of GDP, compared to -4.3% just before the pandemic. Net portfolio investments are also accelerating, especially given the rise in long-term interest rates in Japan, positive real rates, and the value bias of Japanese equities. We are buyers of the yen over the long term, but a further rise in global yields and energy prices are key risks to our view.             United Kingdom Chart 8UK Balance Of Payments The UK has the worst trade balance in the G10, and the picture has not improved much since the pandemic (currently at -6.7% of GDP). Similar to both the euro area and Japan, much of the drag on the trade balance has been due to rising import costs from energy and fuels. This puts the UK at risk of an escalation in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Meanwhile, the improvement in the income balance over the last few years has started to deteriorate, as transfer payments under the Brexit withdrawal agreement kick in. As a result, the current account balance is deteriorating anew (Chart 8). Both portfolio and direct investment in the UK were robust in the post-Brexit environment but have started to deteriorate. This is critical since significant foreign investment is necessary to boost productivity in the UK and prevent the pound from adjusting much lower. With bond yields in the UK rising, and the FTSE heavy in cyclical stocks, this should limit further deterioration in the UK’s financial account. A significant drop in the estimated path of settlement payments for Brexit will also boost the income balance. The key for the pound over the coming years remains how fast the UK can improve productivity, which will convince foreign investors that the return on capital for UK assets will increase. Canada Chart 9Canada Balance Of Payments Canada’s domestic economy has been relatively insulated from the geopolitical shock in Europe, but its export sector is benefiting tremendously from it. Rising oil prices are boosting Canadian terms of trade. As a result, the current account has turned into a surplus for the first time since 2009, in part driven by an improving trade balance (Chart 9). Outside of trade, part of the improvement in the Canadian current account balance is specifically driven by income receipts from Canada’s positive net international investment position. At C$1.5 trillion, income receipts are becoming an important component of the current account balance. Foreign direct investment into Canada continues to remain robust, given strong commodity prices. This is boosting our basic balance measure, which today sits at a surplus of 2.4% of GDP and should continue to improve. Finally, because of Canada’s improving balance-of-payments backdrop, it is no longer reliant on foreign capital as it had been in the past, which supports the loonie.         Australia Chart 10Australia Balance Of Payments Australia continues to sport the best improvement in both its trade and current account balances over the last few years. As a result, the basic balance has eclipsed 4% of GDP for the first time since we have been measuring this series (Chart 10). The story for Australia remains improving terms of trade, specifically in the most desirable commodities – copper, high-grade iron ore, liquefied natural gas, and to a certain extent, high-grade coal. Foreign direct investment in Australia has eased significantly. Investment in projects in the resource space are now bearing fruit, easing the external funding constraint. Meanwhile, domestic savings can now be easily recycled for sustaining capital investment. In fact, foreign direct investment turned negative in Q4 2021. This also explains the drop in net portfolio investment since Australians now need to build a positive net international investment position. We have a limit buy on the Aussie dollar at 70 cents, as we are bullish the currency over a medium-term horizon.         New Zealand Chart 11New Zealand Balance Of Payments For the third quarter of 2021, New Zealand’s current account balance hit record lows, despite robust commodity (agricultural) prices. Imports of fertilizers, crude oil, and vaccines have led to a widening trade deficit. A drop in the exports of wood also affected the balance. With a negative net international investment position of about 48% of GDP, the income balance also subtracted from the current account total (Chart 11). From a bigger-picture perspective, New Zealand’s basic balance has been negative for many years, as coupon and dividend payments to foreign investors, as well as valuation adjustments from net foreign liabilities, have kept the current account in structural deficit. However, as the prices of key agricultural goods head higher, New Zealand can begin to benefit from a terms-of-trade boom that will limit its external funding requirement. In that respect, portfolio investments are also improving. New Zealand has the highest bond yield in the G10, on the back of the highest policy rate so far (the RBNZ raised interest rates again this week). New Zealand’s defensive equity market has also corrected sharply amidst the general market riot. As such, foreign investors could begin to favor this market again based on high yields and a reset in valuations. Going forward, New Zealand should continue to see further improvement in its basic balance relative to the US, supporting the kiwi. Switzerland Chart 12Switzerland Balance Of Payments The Swiss trade balance remains in a structural surplus, with a post Covid-19 boom that has led a new high as a share of   GDP (Chart 12). Global trade has been rather resilient due to high demand for goods. While Switzerland has a large net international investment position, income flows this quarter were hampered by servicing costs for foreign direct investments. The net international investment position did improve by CHF27 billion on a quarter-over-quarter basis in Q3, on the back of a net increase in foreign asset purchases. Currency movements also had little impact on the portfolio in Q3, which is atypical. The SNB will always have to contend with a structural trade surplus that puts upward pressure on the currency. This will keep the Swiss franc well bid, especially in times of crisis when the positive balance-of-payments backdrop makes the CHF a safe haven.             Norway Chart 13Norway Balance Of Payments Q3 2021 saw a strong recovery in Norway’s trade account that is likely to carry over to this year. A recovery in crude oil and natural gas prices was a welcome boon. The lack of tourism also boosted the services account (Norwegians travel and spend less abroad than foreigners visiting Norway). The ongoing electricity crisis in Europe was also an opportune export channel for Norway, which for the first time, opened its 450-mile-long, 1400-megawatt North Sea cable link to the UK. Positive income flows also benefit the current account and the krone (Chart 13). With one of the largest NIIPs in the world heavily skewed towards equity dividends, the NOK benefits when yields rise, even though the domestic fixed-income market is highly illiquid. While a resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis could sap the geopolitical risk premium from oil, the reopening of the global economy will benefit Norwegian exports of oil and gas. Tepid investment in global oil and gas exploration will also ensure Norway’s terms of trade remain robust.       Sweden Chart 14Sweden Balance Of Payments The Swedish current account balance has deteriorated slightly in the last few quarters, on the back of supply-side bottlenecks. Particularly, exports of cars have been hampered amidst a semiconductor shortage. That said, the primary income surplus remains a key pillar of the current account, keeping the basic balance at a healthy surplus of about 6% of GDP (Chart 14). Portfolio inflows into Sweden have dwindled, like most other European economies. If this has been due to geopolitical tensions in Europe, it will eventually prove to be fleeting. That said, the Riksbank remains one of the most dovish in the G10 and the OMX is also one of the most cyclical stock markets, which may have spooked short-term foreign investments. The Swedish krona has been the weakest G10 currency year-to-date. Given that we expect most of the headwinds to be temporary, and the basic balance backdrop remains solid, we will go long SEK versus both the euro and the US dollar.   Chester Ntonifor Foreign Exchange Strategist chestern@bcaresearch.com Trades & Forecasts Strategic View Cyclical Holdings (6-18 months) Tactical Holdings (0-6 months) Limit Orders Forecast Summary

Highlights The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a geopolitical incident that is likely to be limited in scope. A wholesale energy cutoff to Europe is the chief risk to global economic activity, but the sanction response from the US and EU does not point to this outcome. This implies that a large geopolitical risk premium may linger over the very near term, but that equities and other risk assets will ultimately recover. We continue to expect above-trend growth and above-target inflation in the US and other developed economies this year. Q1 growth in the US is likely to be closer to 4% after removing the effect of changing inventories, and incoming information still points to the view that the pandemic will continue to recede in importance over the coming several months. Given the magnitude of the rise in consumer prices in the US and other developed economies, above-trend growth also underpins the significantly hawkish monetary policy shift that has recently occurred. There are legitimate arguments in favor of a very aggressive pace of Fed tightening. Still, our view is that seven rate hikes from the Fed over the coming 12 months is likely too aggressive: A peak in headline inflation over the coming months will help restrain longer-term household inflation expectations, the surge in wage growth continues to reflect pandemic-driven labor market distortions that could unwind, and a significant further flattening of the yield curve – despite likely being a false signal of a recession – would probably cause a temporary period of tighter financial conditions that the Fed would respond to. We believe it is likely that the Fed will initially seek to raise interest rates at a pace that is in line with current market pricing, but that it will likely slow the pace at some point beyond the next 3-4 months. As such, we expect that the Fed will ultimately end up raising interest rates 5 or 6 times over the coming year, less than investors currently expect. The case for aggressive ECB hikes was weak even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European core inflation is nowhere near as strong as it is in the US, and nominal output in the euro area has not yet recovered to its pre-pandemic trend (in heavy contrast to the US). Russia’s invasion has caused a disruption of natural gas flows that will keep European gas prices at elevated levels, and aggressive tightening in response risks repeating the mistakes the ECB made in 2008 and 2011 when it raised rates in the face of an ultimately deflationary supply shock. On a 6-12 month time horizon, we are only likely to recommend downgrading global stocks once 5-year/5-year forward US Treasury yields break above 2.5%, barring a more severe shock to global economic activity from the Ukrainian crisis than currently appears likely. On Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine Yesterday, BCA Research published a Special Alert in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.1 In the report, we outlined Russia’s motivation for invading, and noted that it will not withdraw troops until it has changed the government and seized key territories – such as coastal regions to ensure the long-term ability to blockade the country. Crucially, we noted that while the US and EU will levy sweeping sanctions against Russia, that the EU would not halt Russian energy exports. We regard the decision to maintain Russia’s access to the SWIFT system as consistent with that view. Given this, we believe that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a geopolitical incident that is likely to be limited in scope. A wholesale energy cutoff to Europe is the chief risk to global economic activity, but the sanction response from the US and EU does not point to this outcome. This implies that a large geopolitical risk premium may linger over the very near term, but that growth, inflation, and monetary policy will ultimately return as the drivers of equities and other risk assets over the coming weeks and months. Beyond Ukraine: Growth, Inflation, And Monetary Policy In The DM World Chart I-1Recent US Data Has Looked Smoewhat Stagflationary BCA Research presented three possible growth and inflation scenarios for this year in our 2022 Annual Outlook report. Our base case scenario, to which we assigned 60% odds, was one of above-trend growth and above-target inflation. We assigned 30% odds to a “stagflation-lite” scenario of above-target inflation with below-trend growth, and a 10% chance of a recession. Since we published our Annual Outlook, we raised the odds of the second, stagflation-lite scenario – mostly due to the impact that the Omicron variant of COVID-19 could have on the Chinese supply chain. But until recently, US economic data was also looking somewhat stagflationary: US real GDP only grew at a 2.3% annualized basis in Q3, and the strong Q4 number was mostly boosted by inventories. Real goods spending has slowed over the past few months without a major increase in services spending, and US auto production continues to be restrained by semiconductor shortages (Chart I-1). Supply-side constraints on production and spending have occurred against the backdrop of a significant acceleration in US consumer prices, the combination of which seemingly points more to the second growth and inflation scenario that we outlined, rather than our base case. However, our view is that above-trend growth in the US and other developed economies remains the most likely outcome this year, even given ongoing supply-side constraints and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In addition to the sizeable amount of excess savings that have been accumulated during the pandemic and the enormous increase in household net worth that has occurred over the past two years, two other factors point to above-trend DM growth. In the US, following the release of the January retail sales report, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is forecasting below-trend growth for Q1, but with a -2.3% contribution from the change in private inventories. Chart I-2 highlights that the Atlanta Fed’s model is projecting 3.6% annualized growth in Q1 of final sales of domestic product, a measure of GDP that excludes the effect of changing inventories (whose contribution to growth averages to zero over time). This would be above the trend rate of real GDP growth, and would represent an acceleration relative to the past few quarters. Beyond the next few months, the other factor pointing to above-trend growth is the indication that the pandemic will indeed continue to recede in importance over the course of the year, in line with what we laid out in our Annual Outlook. Chart I-3 highlights that the Omicron-driven surge in hospitalizations in G7 countries has been short-lived, and Chart I-4 highlights that deliveries of Pfizer’s anti-viral treatment Paxlovid, while still in their early stages, have begun. Chart I-2Q1 US Economic Growth Likely To Be Above-Trend Chart I-3Hospitalizations Are Falling Sharply In a recent study, Paxlovid was found to have an 89% efficacy in preventing COVID hospitalizations and deaths, with less serious adverse events or discontinuations than the placebo group.2 Its high effectiveness against all SARS-CoV-2 variants suggests that its increased deployment over the course of the year should significantly reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the medical system as well as lower the fear of the disease amongst consumers, even as new variants of the virus emerge and spread around the world. Consequently, it is likely that the output gap in advanced economies will turn positive this year despite ongoing supply-side constraints unless Russian energy exports to the EU are ceased, triggered either by a European boycott or a Russian embargo. Prior to Russia’s invasion, consensus growth expectations implied above-trend growth for this year (Chart I-5), which we see as consistent with the base case growth and inflation view that we presented in our Annual Outlook if Russian energy exports continue. However, given the magnitude of the rise in consumer prices in the US and other developed economies, above-trend growth also underpins the significantly hawkish monetary policy shift that has occurred over the past 2 months. Chart I-5We Agree With Consensus Expectations For Growth This Year Chart I-4US Paxlovid Deliveries Are Creeping Higher   The Case For, And Against, Aggressive Fed Tightening Just since the beginning of the year, investors have moved to price in an additional 100 basis points of rate hikes from the Fed (Chart I-6). Earlier this month, comments by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard signaling his desire for a full percentage point of interest rate hikes by July had a sizeable effect on US Treasury yields, with market participants still pricing in meaningful odds of a 50 basis point rate hike in March despite recent pushback from key Fed officials and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Chart I-6The Monetary Policy Outlook Has Shifted Rapidly In A Hawkish Direction Last year, The Bank Credit Analyst service warned on several occasions that a return to maximum employment was likely to occur faster than investors expected, and that a hawkish shift from the Fed was probable. We noted in our July report that the cumulative odds of a rate hike by some point in Q2 2022 were close to 40%,3 and in our September Special Report we reinforced the view that a mid-2022 rate hike was likely.4 Still, even relative to our (then) comparatively hawkish expectations, the monetary policy outlook has shifted very aggressively towards more and earlier rate hikes. This shift has partially occurred due to the labor market dynamics that we projected last year, but also due to a significant broadening of inflation over the past four months. Chart I-7 highlights that the 6-month rate of change in US core CPI excluding cars and COVID-impacted services was not meaningfully different in October than it was in the latter half of late-2019, in heavy contrast to overall headline and core inflation. However, over the past four months this measure has accelerated by 175 basis points, highlighting that inflationary pressures are becoming broader – and that an earlier and more forceful response from the Fed may be warranted. Chart I-7US Inflation Has Broadened, And Quickly So Does the broadening in US inflationary pressure that has occurred over the past few months justify the seven rate hikes currently expected by investors over the coming year? We present the detailed case for and against that view below, and conclude that seven rate hikes over the coming 12 months is likely too aggressive. The Case For Aggressive Tightening The most prominent argument in favor of aggressive Fed rate hikes is not just to slow the pace of inflation, but to address the fact that broadening inflationary pressures risk unanchoring inflation expectations. As we discussed in our January 2021 Special Report,5 inflation is determined not just by the output gap, but as well by inflation expectations. Economic slack, changes in imported goods prices, and idiosyncratic shocks all cause core inflation to cyclically fluctuate, but those fluctuations are relative to a level that is determined by inflation expectations – not the Fed’s inflation target. It is only if inflation expectations are consistent with the Fed’s target that actual inflation will equal that target, abstracting from the business cycle and other distorting events. A deeply negative output gap for several years following the global financial crisis caused inflation expectations to be vulnerable to shocks, and the collapse in oil prices in 2014 served as a large enough surprise that expectations unanchored to the downside. This event ultimately motivated the Fed’s introduction of its average inflation targeting policy, but Chart I-8 highlights that inflation expectations are no longer chronically low and that they may unanchor to the upside without meaningfully tighter monetary policy. A temporary period of higher food prices stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine also raises the risk of unanchored inflation expectations among households. The second argument in favor of aggressive Fed rate hikes is that the unemployment rate has essentially fallen back to its pre-pandemic level, and median wage growth has already risen to its strongest level in 20 years (Chart I-9). Given that a large amount of excess savings and a very significant wealth effect are likely to continue to support aggregate demand, the inference is that overall wage growth may accelerate significantly further as the unemployment rate continues to fall. Chart I-8Inflation Expectations Are No Longer Depressed Chart I-9Wage Growth Has Risen Very Significantly The third argument in favor of rapid tightening is that the natural/neutral rate of interest is likely higher than both investors and the Federal reserve believe, meaning that monetary policy is even easier today than is generally recognized. We have written about this issue at length: in March 2020 we explained why the most cited measure of “R-star” was wrong,6 and noted in our April 2021 Special Report why we no longer believe that a gap between interest rates and trend rates of economic growth are justified. This perspective also suggests that investors should look past the quasi-recessionary signal currently being flagged by the 2/10 yield curve, as curve inversion is likely to be a false signal of a recession – as it was in 2019 (see Box I-1). BOX I-1 The Sino-US Trade War, The Yield Curve, And The COVID-19 Pandemic The US yield curve has historically provided a highly reliable signal of the likelihood of a recession. Investors have taken an inverted yield curve as a sign that short-term interest rates have risen to a level that is not likely to be sustained over the longer term, meaning that monetary policy has become tight. An inverted yield curve has indeed preceded several US recessions, although its track record at predicting contractions globally has been less reliable. While it is a counterfactual assertion, we believe that the yield curve provided a false signal when it inverted in 2019. Clearly the inversion did not predict the COVID-19 pandemic; the question is whether the US would have experienced a recession had the pandemic not occurred. In our view, the evidence does not point to that conclusion. Charts I-B1 and I-B2 highlight that the yield curve responded to an economic slowdown that was mostly caused by the Sino-US trade war, as well as an ongoing slowdown in Chinese credit growth and economic activity. It does not appear to have occurred due to interest rates having risen to a level that would be unsustainable absent these non-monetary shocks. Chart I-B1The Yield Curve Inverted Well After The Trade War Hit… Chart I-B2…And The Economy Started Improving After The Inversion In addition, the signal from the yield curve lagged that of the equity market: Chart I-B1 highlights that the US equity market fell just shy of 20% eleven months before the yield curve inverted. In fact, stock prices were rising sharply just prior to the emergence of the pandemic in response to expectations of monetary easing and the Phase I US trade deal, and the US Markit manufacturing and services PMIs were also turning up. None of these signs point to the likelihood of a contraction in US output had the COVID-19 pandemic not emerged. The key point for investors is that an inversion of the yield curve, were it to occur over the coming 12-18 months, would not necessarily signal a recession unless it were coupled with a major non-monetary shock. It would, however, be significant from a strategy standpoint, as the Fed would likely take it as a sign of tightening financial conditions. The Case Against Aggressive Fed Action Chart I-10Inflation Expectations Have Risen, But Are Not Out Of Control There are several counterpoints to the arguments noted above, as well as a few additional reasons to suggest that 7 rate hikes over the coming year is too aggressive. First, on the issue of inflation expectations, while it is true that expectations are no longer chronically low, longer-term expectations have not yet exceeded their pre-global financial crisis (GFC) range (Chart I-10). In addition, despite the temporary spike in energy and food prices stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, headline inflation is likely to peak at some point over the coming months, which will act to restrain longer-term household inflation expectations. Importantly, inflation is likely to peak even without any Fed tightening. A comparison of the recent pace of advance in both headline and core CPI suggests that the former has up to 200 basis points of downside if crude oil prices remain at $100/bbl. Our Commodity & Energy Strategy team expects that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will prompt increased production from core OPEC producers to reduce the elevated risk premium and allow refiners to boost inventories. We now expect Brent oil to average $85/bbl in the second half of 2022, implying eventual deflation from energy prices and a slowdown in the pace of advance in headline CPI over the coming months – potentially below that of core. That would represent a very significant easing in headline inflation relative to current levels, and we do not expect that long-term household expectations for inflation would rise much further in such a scenario. The easing in the prices paid component of the ISM manufacturing index also points to an imminent peak in headline inflation and, by extension, household inflation expectations (Chart I-11). Second, while it is true that overall wage growth has recently accelerated quite significantly, it is still the case that this is being driven by the lowest-paid workers. Chart I-12 highlights that 1st and 2nd quartile wage growth are between 0.4-1.2% higher than they were prior to the pandemic, but that 3rd and 4th quartile wage growth is either the same or lower. Chart I-12Lower-Pay Wage Inflation Is Due To The Pandemic... Chart I-11The Prices Paid Components Of Manufacturing PMIs Also Points To Lower Headline Inflation   This surge in wages for low-paid workers largely reflects pandemic-driven labor market distortions, rather than excess demand. Chart I-13 highlights that real US services spending remains close to 5% below its pre-pandemic trend, and Table I-1 highlights that the leisure & hospitality industry now accounts for the vast majority of the jobs gap relative to pre-pandemic levels. Chart I-14 also highlights that while the leisure & hospitality jobs gap is smaller in red states than in blue states (which may be disproportionately affected by lost services jobs in central business districts due to work-from-home policies), it is still larger today that it was during the depths of the 2008/2009 recession. Chart I-13...Not Excessive Services Demand The key takeaway from Table I-1 and Charts I-13 and I-14 is that rising 1st and 2nd quartile wage growth is being caused by labor scarcity in low paying industries, which we attribute to the fact that working conditions in these jobs became more difficult during the pandemic and the fact that many of these positions involve close contact with customers. And clearly, raising interest rates will not hasten the return of leisure & hospitality workers to the labor market.   Table I-1Leisure & Hospitality And Education Now Make Up Almost All Of The US Jobs Gap Chart I-14The Leisure & Hospitality Employment Gap Does Not Seem Related To Work-From-Home Trends Third, even though we think the natural/neutral rate of interest is higher than both investors and the Federal reserve believe and that the yield curve provided a false signal of a recession in 2019, a significant further flattening of the yield curve would probably cause a tightening in financial conditions, at least for a time. The Fed is unlikely to be dissuaded from raising rates due to a valuation-driven decline in equity prices, but it is likely to respond to market-based signals of a material slowdown in economic activity – even if those signals ultimately prove to be false. The yield curve is an important reflection of how far bond investors believe the economic cycle has progressed (Chart I-15), and an increase in short-term interest rates at the pace that investors are currently expecting would flatten the 2/10 yield curve very close to (or into) negative territory. It seems likely that a rapid flattening in the curve would precipitate a growth scare in financial markets for a time, leading to falling equity prices (due to concerns about earnings, not just valuation), a rising US dollar, and a widening in corporate credit spreads. Chart I-15For The Fed, The Yield Curve Is An Important Market Indicator Of A Recession To conclude on this point, the Fed will feel that it is justified in hiking rates aggressively while inflation is well above its target levels and the unemployment rate is low and falling, but it is likely to change this assessment if financial markets begin to behave in a way that signals a rising risk of a significant slowdown in jobs growth. That would lead to a tactical period of weakness for risky asset prices, but it would ultimately be cyclically positive if the Fed revises its pace of tightening to a rate that is slower than investors currently expect. Our View Netting out the arguments presented above, the Fed may initially seek to raise interest rates at a pace that is in line with current market pricing, but it will likely slow that pace at some point beyond the next 3-4 months. As such, we expect that the Fed will ultimately end up raising interest rates 5 or 6 times over the coming year, less than investors currently expect. Our view also has important implications for the euro area interest rate outlook, given the significantly weaker case for aggressive ECB action that existed even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A Flimsy Case For Aggressive ECB Rate Hikes, Even Before Russia’s Invasion Chart I-16The European Inflation Situation Is Not As Bad As In The US At the early-February ECB meeting, President Christine Lagarde signaled a more hawkish outlook for euro area monetary policy than investors had been expecting. Since the beginning of the year, the OIS market has moved to price-in roughly 70 bps of hikes over the coming 12 months, German 2-year bund yields have risen 20 basis points, and 10-year yields have risen back into positive territory. Italian and Greek 10-year yield spreads (relative to Bunds) have risen by 35 and 90 basis points, respectively. From our perspective, investors are pricing a too-aggressive path for the ECB policy rate, and we would probably characterize an ECB decision to raise rates in line with current market expectations as a policy mistake. As highlighted in a recent report by my colleague Mathieu Savary, BCA’s Chief European Strategist, several arguments support this view. First, Chart I-16 highlights that euro area core inflation is running at a considerably slower rate than headline inflation or core inflation in the US, and that our core inflation diffusion index for the euro area has peaked. It is true that core inflation is much higher in Germany than in other key euro area economies, and it is also true that aggregate euro area core inflation is above the ECB’s 2% target. But high German core inflation is seemingly driven by particularly acute passthrough effects from high natural gas prices, and recent IMF research underscores that over half of the increase in German manufacturing price inflation has occurred due to supply shocks rather than demand (Chart I-17). Chart I-18 shows that expectations for euro area inflation and actual wage growth do not, in any way, suggest that the ECB’s 2% target is under threat, underscoring that aggressive tightening over the coming several months risks repeating the mistakes the ECB made in 2008 and 2011 when it tightened policy in the face of an ultimately deflationary supply shock. Chart I-17German Core Inflation Is Being Disproportionately Driven By Supply Shocks The second argument is that nominal output in the euro area has not yet recovered to its pre-pandemic trend, in heavy contrast to the US (Chart I-19). This is particularly true for Italy and Spain, and reflects the nature of the euro area fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Chart I-20 highlights that the cumulative growth in euro area disposable income has been lower than what would have been expected absent the pandemic, unlike what occurred in the US and Canada – two countries that provided sizeable direct transfers to households as part of their fiscal response. Chart I-19Key Euro Area Economies Have Recovered Far Less Than The US Has Chart I-18Euro Area Inflation Expectations And Wage Growth Do Not Signal The ECB's Inflation Target Is Under Threat     Third, Russia’s invasion has caused a disruption of natural gas flows via Ukraine that will keep European gas prices at elevated levels even beyond the winter period, which will have a negative impact on the euro area economy. Chart I-21 highlights that European natural gas prices are now seven times as high as they were at the beginning of 2021. Unlike the prior rise in European natural gas prices, which was somewhat related to global demand for goods, the post-invasion surge is a pure supply shock – echoing our point about the ECB’s previous policy mistakes. Chart I-20Euro Area Disposable Income Is Lower Than Its Pre-Pandemic Trend, In Contrast To The US Chart I-21Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Has Created A Pure Natural Gas Supply Shock The fact that Italy’s nominal economic recovery has been comparatively weak has helped explain the rise in its 10-year government bond yield relative to 10-year German Bunds. Allowing for a further economic recovery in those countries before raising rates would let the ECB ultimately increase rates further down the road – and thus exit more cleanly from negative policy rates in Europe. Our European Strategy Team continues to expect that the ECB is on track to raise interest rates only once in Q4 2022, to be then followed by more aggressive hikes in 2023. Investment Conclusions For fixed-income investors, the investment implications of policy rates moving higher over the coming year at a pace that is less rapid than currently expected would normally imply that an at or above-benchmark duration stance is warranted. However, Chart I-22 highlights that there is still upside for 10-year US Treasury yields even in a scenario where the Fed raises rates at a pace of 100 basis points per year. As such, we continue to recommend that investors remain short duration on a 6-12 month time horizon, although we agree with BCA’s fixed-income team’s recommendation to tactically raise duration to neutral given the potential for the European energy crisis to worsen further and the fact that 10-year US Treasury yields do not have as much upside on a cyclical basis as they did when we published our Annual Outlook.7 For equities, we do not find the case for a tactical downgrade to be compelling at current levels, given that global stocks have already fallen 10% from their mid-November highs. Over the near term, we expect the continued underperformance of euro area equities, be we doubt that the negative economic impact of higher natural gas and oil prices would persist beyond a 0-3 month time horizon. On a 6-12 month time horizon, our expectation that monetary policy will tighten at a less aggressive pace than investors expect suggests that the earnings risk to global stocks is not substantial, underscoring that a meaningful contraction in equity multiples would likely be required for stocks to register negative 12-month returns from current levels. In the US, business surveys suggest that sales growth is set to slow to a still-healthy level, and that profit margins are likely to be flat over the coming year (Chart I-23). This is in line with the view that we presented in our Annual Outlook, namely that US earnings growth in 2022 would be driven mainly by top-line growth. Chart I-22Investors Should Still Be Cyclically Short Duration Chart I-23Surveys Imply Strong Revenue Growth And Flat Margins, And Thus Positive Earnings Growth Chart I-24Still No Sign That The Secular Stagnation Narrative Is Under Attach. That Is Good For Stocks. Similarly, the risk of a serious interest rate-driven contraction in equity multiples over the coming year does not appear to be elevated. Investors are far more inclined to use long-maturity bond yields to discount future cash flows than short-term interest rates, and we have noted that the rise in long-maturity bond yields is necessarily self-limiting unless investor expectations about the natural/neutral rate of interest change. Chart I-24 highlights that despite an extremely rapid shift in monetary policy outlook amid the highest US headline inflation in 40 years, 5-year/5-year forward US Treasury yields remain only fractionally above 2%. This underscores that fixed-income investors will need to see evidence that a progressively higher Fed funds rate is not disrupting economic activity before they are likely to abandon the secular stagnation narrative. While the equity risk premium will remain elevated over the near term due to the situation in Ukraine, the bond market’s continued belief in secular stagnation will likely support equity multiples – at least for the remainder of the year. As such, we recommend that investors position in favor of the following over the coming 6-12 months: Overweight equities versus long-maturity government bonds Overweight value versus growth stocks Short duration within a fixed-income portfolio, with a neutral tactical overlay Overweight speculative-grade corporate bonds with a credit portfolio Overweight non-resource cyclicals versus defensives and small caps versus large Short the US dollar versus major currencies Jonathan LaBerge, CFA Vice President The Bank Credit Analyst February 25, 2022 Next Report: March 31, 2022 II. Canada: How High Can Rates Rise? The buildup of excessive household debt in Canada over the past two decades has occurred because of outsized demand for housing, not because of the impact of constrained housing supply on house prices. Outsized demand for housing has occurred because interest rates have been persistently too low, pointing to the need for the Bank of Canada to tighten monetary policy in order to prevent even further leveraging. The burden of Canada’s household sector debt may exceed its pre-pandemic level next year given current market expectations for the path of rate hikes. This implies that the prior peak in the Canadian policy rate (1.75%) likely reflects a high-end estimate of the neutral rate of interest in Canada. Regulatory changes have occurred in recognition of Canada’s extreme levels of household debt. Although a massive decline in Canadian house prices would cause a very severe recession, it would not likely precipitate a Lehman-style collapse of the Canadian financial system. Over the next twelve months, investors should position favorably toward CAD-USD. As the Canadian policy rate approaches our estimate of the neutral rate, a short CAD position and an overweight stance towards long-maturity Canadian bonds versus US Treasurys will likely be warranted. Within a global equity portfolio, exposure to relatively high-yielding Canadian banks should not be reduced until hard evidence of a significant slowdown in the housing market emerges. The outlook for monetary policy in advanced economies has shifted rapidly in a hawkish direction over the past few months. While we believe that the Fed and other central banks will end up raising interest rates this year fewer times than investors currently expect, it is clear that monetary policy will tighten in the DM world over the coming 12-18 months. This has raised the question of how high policy rates may rise before monetary policy begins to restrict economic activity. Some investors have specifically focused this question on countries like Canada, which has a highly indebted household sector and has seen house prices rise at a 7% average annual pace for the past 20 years. In this report, we explore the root cause of Canada’s extreme household debt and argue against the constrained housing supply view. Instead, we conclude that persistently low interest rates have fueled excessive housing demand and that the prior peak in the Canadian policy rate (1.75%) probably reflects a high-end estimate of the neutral rate of interest in Canada – in contrast with that of the US. Finally, we note that the regulatory changes that have occurred in recognition of the risk from excessive household debt suggest that a massive decline in Canadian house prices would not likely precipitate a Lehman-style collapse of the Canadian financial system – it would, however, clearly cause a severe recession. Over the next twelve months, investors should position favorably toward CAD-USD. As the Canadian policy rate approaches our estimate of the neutral rate, a short CAD position and an overweight stance towards long-maturity Canadian bonds versus US Treasurys will likely be warranted. Within a global equity portfolio, exposure to relatively high-yielding Canadian banks should not be reduced until hard evidence of a significant slowdown in the housing market emerges. The Root Cause Of Canada’s Extreme Household Debt Chart II-1Canadian Households Are Massively Indebted Relative to disposable income, Canadian household debt has risen substantially over the past two decades. Chart II-1 highlights that Canada’s household debt to disposable income ratio has risen by 180% since 2000, and is currently over 50 percentage points higher than that in the US, even when nonfinancial noncorporate debt is included in the latter.8 Rising Canadian household indebtedness is a problem that is well known to investors, policymakers, regulators, banks, and consumers themselves. Organizations such as the IMF have repeatedly warned that excess household debt poses a potential economic stability risk. In the years prior to the pandemic, policymakers have responded with a series of macroprudential measures designed to limit speculation and foreign ownership in the housing market and to reduce the incremental risk to the economy posed by new borrowers. When asked why Canadian households have leveraged themselves so significantly over the past 20 years, most market commentators in Canada point to insufficient housing supply as the main driver of excessive house prices. Given normal ongoing demand for housing, they argue, persistent supply-side pressure on housing prices will naturally lead to a rising stock of debt relative to income. According to this narrative, the solution to Canada’s housing crisis is centered squarely on incentives to build more homes. Raising interest rates to cool mortgage demand will simply exacerbate the housing affordability problem, while simultaneously discouraging additional residential investment needed to decrease home prices structurally. Chart II-2The Supply Of Non-Apartment Dwellings Has Indeed Declined Over Time... We hold a different perspective. We do agree that there are some limitations on the supply side that likely are unduly boosting prices of certain dwelling types. For example, the Greenbelt that surrounds Ontario’s Golden Horseshoe region - a permanently protected area of land - has likely constrained some housing activity, and Chart II-2 highlights that single detached, semi-detached, and row/townhouses have fallen significantly as a share of overall housing completions. Apartments and other dwellings now account for a clear majority of new housing construction in Canada. However, there is a great deal of evidence positioned against the view that supply-side factors are the primary cause of outsized housing inflation and, by extension, a massive increase in Canadian household debt to GDP: Based on real residential investment, the pace of housing construction in Canada has not fallen relative to GDP or the population. Chart II-3 highlights that, compared with the US, residential investment has trended higher over the past 20 years. Based on Canadian housing completion data, Chart II-4 highlights that the number of completions has generally kept pace with half of the change in Canada’s population, a ratio that is easily consistent with two or more people per household. In addition, the chart highlights that the periods when houses were completed at a below-average rate relative to population growth have not been the same as when Canadian household debt has increased relative to disposable income. Chart II-3...But Overall Real Residential Investment Has Kept Pace With Canada's GDP And Population Chart II-4Housing Supply Has Not Been The Main Driver Of Rising Canadian Indebtedness Chart II-5Prices For All Canadian Property Types Have Surged Over The Past Two Decades If the rise in Canadian household indebtedness has been caused by the increasing scarcity of single-detached, semi-detached, and row/townhouses, then we would expect to see a persistent and growing divergence between overall Canadian house prices and those of apartment/condominiums. Chart II-5 highlights that this is not the case: while apartment/condo prices have at times grown at a slower rate than overall home prices over the past 15 years (as in the period from 2011 to 2016), they have also at times grown at a faster rate. The chart clearly highlights that the Canadian housing market is driven by a common factor, and that average house price gains have not been significantly different across property types over time. Similarly, if a scarcity of housing supply was the main driver of rising house prices and household debt, we would not expect to see a significant increase in the homeownership rate. Chart II-6 highlights that the Canadian homeownership rate did rise substantially from the mid-1990s to 2016 (the last available datapoint). While it is not clear what the sustainable or “equilibrium” homeownership rate is, it is notable that the most recent datapoint was not significantly lower than the peak rate reached in the US following that country’s massive housing bubble. Finally, Chart II-7 reiterates a point we made in our June 2021 Special Report: in several economies (including Canada), interest rates have remained well below levels that macroeconomic theory would traditionally consider to be in equilibrium over the past two decades. This has occurred alongside significant household sector leveraging. Chart II-7Too-Low Interest Rates Have Fueled Rising Household Indebtedness In Canada (And Other DM Economies) Chart II-6The Canadian Homeownership Rate Has Risen Significantly, Pointing To Excess Housing Demand     These factors strongly point to rising household debt levels as being driven by demand-side rather than supply-side factors – demand that has been fueled by persistently low interest rates. How High Can The Bank Of Canada Raise Interest Rates? Over the next 12 months, investors expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to raise interest rates by 180 basis points, in line with the Fed (Chart II-8). Over the longer term, the BoC believes that interest rates will average between 1.75% and 2.75%. In the US, the 2/10 yield curve has flattened significantly in response to the Fed’s hawkish shift, and neither the explosion in headline consumer price inflation nor the Fed’s about face have significantly raised the market’s longer-term expectations for interest rates (which are even below the Fed’s estimates). In Canada, investors expect essentially the same long-term interest rate outlook, as evidenced by 5-year / 5-year forward government bond yields (Chart II-9). Chart II-8Investors Expect A Similar Magnitude Of Tightening In Canada And The US Over The Next Year... Chart II-9...And A Similar Average Interest Rate Over The Longer Term As in the case in the US, the hawkish shift among major central banks has left investors asking how high the BoC can raise interest rates, and what implications that might have for Canadian assets – especially the CAD and long-maturity Canadian government bonds. In our view, the best way for investors to assess the impact of rising interest rates on the private sector – especially a highly indebted one – is to project the impact that an increase in interest rates will have on the debt service ratio (DSR). The burden of servicing debt, rather than the stock of debt relative to income, is the right way to measure the impact of shifting monetary policy because it considers the combined effect of changes in leverage, income, and interest rates. The primary drawback of debt service ratio analysis is that the question of sustainability must be answered empirically. In countries experiencing an ever-rising debt service ratio, it can be difficult for investors to judge where the breaking point will be. Cross-country comparisons may sometimes be helpful in this respect, but Chart II-10 highlights that BIS estimates for household debt service ratios vary widely even among advanced economies. However, in Canada, the 2017-2019 tightening cycle provides a useful framework. As we anticipated in a 2017 Special Report,9 the rise in Canadian interest rates during that period caused the household debt service ratio to exceed the level reached in 2007, which contributed to a collapse in Canadian house price appreciation to its lowest level since the global financial crisis (Chart II-11). The decline in house prices during this period was also caused by the introduction of new macroprudential measures (particularly the introduction of a minimum qualifying rate for mortgages, more commonly referred to as a mortgage “stress test” rule), but the impact of higher interest rates was likely significant. Chart II-11The Last Tightening Cycle In Canada Contributed Significantly To A Major Slowdown In Canadian House Prices Chart II-10Private Sector Debt Service Ratios Vary Significantly Across DM Countries   Chart II-11 highlights that the Canadian household debt service ratio collapsed during the pandemic, which seems to suggest that the Bank of Canada has ample room to raise interest rates. However, the decline in the DSR occurred not only because of falling interest rates, but also because of the significant excess savings amassed as a result of the pandemic. As in the US, excess savings in Canada were the result of reduced spending on services and the generation of significant excess income from government transfers (see Chart I-20 from Section 1 of this month’s report). These fiscal transfers will eventually disappear, implying that the Canadian household DSR is artificially low. Chart II-12 shows our estimate of the evolution of the overall Canadian household sector DSR based on the following assumptions: Mortgage rates rise in line with market expectations for the change in the policy rate Government transfers fall back to their pre-pandemic trend Disposable income growth ex-transfers grows in line with consensus expectations for nominal GDP growth The overall debt-to-disposable income ratio, using our estimate for total disposable income, remains flat. The chart highlights that the Canadian household sector DSR may exceed its pre-pandemic level next year, and that a 1.75% policy rate is the threshold at which the DSR will hit a new high. The implication of our projection is that the re-acceleration in household sector debt that has occurred during the pandemic, shown in Chart II-13, will again contribute to a significant slowdown in the Canadian housing market as the BoC begins to raise interest rates as in 2018/2019. It also implies that the prior peak in the Canadian policy rate probably reflects a high-end estimate of the neutral rate of interest in Canada. Chart II-12Market Expectations For The Canadian Policy Rate Imply A Record High Debt Burden Chart II-13Canadian Household Loan Growth Has Reaccelerated During The Pandemic   As we discuss below, this is likely to lead to significant implications for CAD-USD and an allocation to long-maturity Canadian government bonds, once investors begin to upwardly revise their expectations for the US neutral rate. Extreme Household Debt And Canadian Financial Stability The question of financial stability is often posed by investors when discussing Canada’s extreme household debt burden. Some investors view the US subprime financial crisis as the likely template for the Canadian economy, given the fact that the US credit bubble also focused on the housing market. Despite our pessimistic assessment of the capacity of the Canadian economy to tolerate higher interest rates (unlike the US today), we do not share the view that the Canadian financial system faces a potential insolvency risk, like the US banking system did in 2008. We see two potential arguments in favor of the instability view. The first is related to the sheer concentration of debt in Canada relative to other countries. Chart II-14 highlights that the median debt-to-income ratio of indebted Canadian households is currently the second highest in the world (after Norway) among the 29 countries that the OECD tracks. This concentration measure has worsened considerably since we published our 2017 Special Report. The combination of a very high average level of debt and extremely high leverage among those who are indebted suggests that Canadian banks may be exposed to significant credit losses in the event of a serious housing market crash. Chart II-14The Degree Of Concentration In Canadian Household Debt Is A Potential Financial Stability Risk Chart II-15A Decline In The CMHC's Footprint In The Mortgage Insurance Market Is Also Concerning The second argument relates to the declining share of mortgages insured by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The CMHC is a Crown corporation that provides mortgage-default insurance to Canadian banks. Banks must purchase such insurance when a borrower’s loan-to-value ratio exceeds 80%. The CMHC has seen increased competition from two private mortgage insurers, and Chart II-15 highlights that the number of mortgages with CHMC insurance has been steadily falling over time. In order for the CMHC to be able to reduce systemic risk during a crisis, it must be present enough in the mortgage market to be able to replace private insurers in the event of a shock that causes them to leave the market. In effect, the CMHC should be able to act as a ballast to prevent a sharp tightening in Canadian mortgage lending standards and credit provision, which could occur if banks find themselves unable to purchase mortgage insurance to cover borrowers with relatively small down payments. In this respect, the reduced footprint of the CMHC is concerning. However, these risks have to be weighed against two key structural changes that legitimately lower the systemic risk facing the Canadian banking system (or lower the impact of a major adverse housing event). The first of these changes is the introduction of the minimum qualifying rate for mortgages in Canada (the mortgage stress test), which we regard as one of the most important macroprudential policies that Canada has enacted to reduce the systemic risk of rising household debt. The stress test rules – which apply to all borrowers – force mortgage borrowers to pass the CMHC’s gross debt and total debt service ratio thresholds under the assumption of higher interest rates than borrowers will actually pay: either the contracted mortgage rate plus 2 percentage points, or 5.65% – whichever is higher. Given prevailing mortgage rates in Canada, this effectively means that new borrowers will not exceed the CMHC’s debt service thresholds until the Bank of Canada’s policy rate exceeds 2.5%. That is positive from a financial stability perspective, although it does not rule out the slowdown in household spending that we would expect if the aggregate household debt service ratio hits a new high next year in response to BoC tightening. The second important risk-reducing structural change is a significant improvement in Canadian bank capital levels. Chart II-16 highlights that Tier 1 capital has risen significantly relative to risk-weighted assets for Canadian depository institutions, and is now on par with US levels (in contrast to a typically lower level over the past decade). The IMF stress tested Canadian banks in 2019, when capital levels were lower than they are today. They found that most Canadian banks would run down conservation capital buffers in the adverse economic scenario that they modeled, subjecting them to dividend restrictions for a period of time following the adverse event. However, Canadian banks would not breach their minimum capital requirements in the scenario modeled by the IMF, which involved a 40% decline in house prices and a 2% cumulative decline in Canadian real GDP over a two year period – which is essentially what occurred in the US and Canada in 2008 and 2009 (Chart II-17). Chart II-16Canadian Bank Capital Appears Sufficient To Weather A Storm Chart II-17The IMF's Stress Tests Modeled A Repeat Of The 2008/2009 Crisis To conclude on the question of financial stability, it is clear that the magnitude and concentration of household debt implies that the impact of a serious housing market crash on the Canadian economy would be severe. But the fact that regulatory changes have occurred in recognition of this risk suggests that although a massive decline in Canadian house prices would cause a very severe recession, it would not likely precipitate a Lehman-style collapse of the Canadian financial system. Investment Conclusions Three conclusions emerge from our report. First, when considering the total experience of the past two decades, it is clear that the buildup of excessive household debt in Canada has occurred because of outsized demand for housing, not because of the impact of constrained housing supply on house prices. Outsized demand for housing has occurred because interest rates have been persistently below what traditional monetary policy rules such as the Taylor Rule would prescribe, pointing to the need for the Bank of Canada to tighten monetary policy in order to prevent even further leveraging. While US interest rates were also below what the Taylor Rule would have suggested for several years following the global financial crisis, the US household sector did not leverage itself significantly during that period because of the multi-year impact of the 2008/2009 financial crisis on US household balance sheets (Chart II-18). Canadian households did not suffer the same type of balance sheet impairment, and yet the Bank of Canada wrongly imported hyper-accommodative US monetary policy in an attempt to prevent a significant further increase in the exchange rate (which was still persistently strong for several years following the crisis). Through its actions, the Bank of Canada succeeded in staving off “Dutch Disease”, but at the cost of fueling a substantial housing and credit market bubble. Second, the fact that the Bank of Canada is likely to struggle to raise interest rates above 1.75% implies that a sizeable divergence may emerge between Canadian and US monetary policy over the coming few years if we are correct in our view that the US neutral rate is higher than the Fed currently expects. While such a divergence is not likely to occur over the coming year, Chart II-19 highlights that a 125 basis point policy rate spread – consistent with a nominal neutral rate of 1.75% in Canada and 3% in the US – last occurred in the mid-to-late 1990s, when CAD-USD ultimately declined to 0.65. Chart II-18The Bank Of Canada Staved Off "Dutch Disease", At The Cost Of Fueling A Major Housing And Credit Bubble Chart II-19Some Potentially Large Downside For CAD If US Neutral Rate Expectations Move Higher Over the coming year, we expect Canadian dollar strength rather than weakness: we are generally bearish toward the US dollar on the expectation of above-trend global growth, and our fundamental intermediate-term model suggests that CAD should strengthen. Thus, while it is too early to short the Canadian dollar, we would be inclined to turn bearish in response to rising long-term US interest rate expectations. We would draw similar conclusions for Canadian government bonds: investors should raise exposure to long-dated Canadian government bonds versus similar maturity US Treasurys as the Bank of Canada raises its policy rate toward our estimate of the neutral rate. Chart II-20Relative ROE Justifies A Valuation Premium For Canadian Banks Finally, the improvements that have been made over the past several years to dampen the impact of a housing market crash on the Canadian financial system suggests that exposure to Canadian banks should not be reduced until hard evidence of a significant slowdown in the housing market emerges. Chart II-20 highlights that the valuation premium of Canadian banks appears to be supported by a sizeable ROE advantage relative to global banks. Panel 2 highlights how composite relative valuation indicator for Canadian banks suggests that they have been persistently expensive for some time, but not extremely so. Canadian banks would certainly underperform their global peers should the adverse scenario modeled by the IMF’s 2019 stress test of the banking system to occur, especially if it implied that Canadian banks would be forced to restrict dividends for a time to bolster capital adequacy. However, we would advise investors against shorting relatively high-yielding Canadian banks as Canadian interest rates rise, until they see clear signs of Canada-specific slowdown in housing demand in response to higher rates. Jonathan LaBerge, CFA Vice President The Bank Credit Analyst Gabriel Di Lullo Research Associate III. Indicators And Reference Charts BCA’s equity indicators highlight that the “easy” money from expectations of an eventual end to the pandemic have already been made. Our valuation, and sentiment indicators remain very extended, highlighting that investors should expect positive but relatively modest returns from stocks over the coming 6-12 months. Our technical indicator has declined from extremely overbought levels in response to January’s US equity sell-off and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but it has not yet reached oversold territory. Still, we believe that the equity market’s reaction to rising bond yields is overdone, especially for value stocks. Forward equity earnings are pricing in a substantial further rise in earnings per share. Net earnings revisions and net positive earnings surprises have rolled over, but from extremely elevated levels and there is no meaningful sign yet of a decline in the level of forward earnings. Bottom-up analyst earning expectations remain too high, but stocks are still likely to be supported by robust revenue growth over the coming year. Within a global equity portfolio, we continue to recommend that investors position for the underperformance of financial assets that are negatively correlated with long-maturity government bond yields (such as growth stocks). The 10-Year Treasury Yield has broken convincingly above its 200-day moving average following the Fed’s hawkish shift, but remains below the fair value implied by our bond valuation index and the FOMC-implied fair value in a March 2022 rate hike scenario. We continue to expect that long-maturity bond yields will move higher over the coming year. Commodity prices remain elevated, and our composite technical indicator highlights that they remain overbought. An eventual slowdown in US goods spending, coupled with eventual supply-chain normalization, could weigh on commodity prices at some point over the coming 6-12 months. We are more comfortable with a bullish view towards industrial metals in the latter half of 2022. US and global LEIs have rolled over from very elevated levels. Our global LEI diffusion index has declined very significantly, but this likely reflects the outsized impact of a few emerging market countries. Still-strong leading and coincident indicators underscore that the global demand for goods is robust, and that output gaps are negative in many advanced economies because of very weak services spending. The latter will recover significantly at some point over the coming year, as the severity of the pandemic wanes. EQUITIES: Chart III-1US Equity Indicators Chart III-2Willingness To Pay For Risk Chart III-3US Equity Sentiment Indicators Chart III-4US Stock Market Breadth Chart III-5US Stock Market Valuation Chart III-6US Earnings Chart III-7Global Stock Market And Earnings: Relative Performance Chart III-8Global Stock Market And Earnings: Relative Performance FIXED INCOME: Chart III-9US Treasurys And Valuations Chart III-10Yield Curve Slopes Chart III-11Selected US Bond Yields Chart III-1210-Year Treasury Yield ComponentsChart III-13US Corporate Bonds And Health Monitor Chart III-14Global Bonds: Developed Markets Chart III-15Global Bonds: Emerging Markets CURRENCIES: Chart III-16US Dollar And PPP Chart III-17US Dollar And Indicator Chart III-18US Dollar Fundamentals Chart III-19Japanese Yen Technicals Chart III-20Euro Technicals Chart III-21Euro/Yen Technicals Chart III-22Euro/Pound Technicals COMMODITIES: Chart III-23Broad Commodity Indicators Chart III-24Commodity Prices Chart III-25Commodity Prices Chart III-26Commodity Sentiment Chart III-27Speculative Positioning ECONOMY: Chart III-28US And Global Macro Backdrop Chart III-29US Macro Snapshot Chart III-30US Growth Outlook Chart III-31US Cyclical Spending Chart III-32US Labor Market Chart III-33US Consumption Chart III-34US Housing Chart III-35US Debt And Deleveraging Chart III-36US Financial Conditions Chart III-37Global Economic Snapshot: Europe Chart III-38Global Economic Snapshot: China Jonathan LaBerge, CFA Vice President The Bank Credit Analyst Footnotes 1     Please see BCA Special Alert "Russia Takes Ukraine: What Next?," dated February 24, 2022, available at bca.bcaresearch.com 2    Jennifer Hammond et al. “Oral Nirmatrelvir for High-Risk, Nonhospitalized Adults with Covid-19.” The New England Journal of Medicine, February 16, 2022. 3    Please see The Bank Credit Analyst "July 2021," dated June 24, 2021, available at bca.bcaresearch.com 4   Please see The Bank Credit Analyst "The Return To Maximum Employment: It May Be Faster Than You Think," dated August 26, 2021, available at bca.bcaresearch.com 5    Please see The Bank Credit Analyst "The Modern-Day Phillips Curve, Future Inflation, And What To Do About It," dated December 18, 2020, available at bca.bcaresearch.com 6    Please see Global Investment Strategy "Revisiting The Neutral Rate Of Interest: A Contrarian View In A Time Of Crisis," dated March 20, 2020, available at gis.bcaresearch.com 7    BCA Webcast Positioning For A Rate Hike Cycle, February 15, 2022. 8   For an explanation of why we add US nonfinancial noncorporate debt to the numerator of the US household sector debt to disposable income ratio when comparing Canada to the US, please see: “Reconciling Canadian-U.S. measures of household disposable income and household debt: Update”. 9    Please see Global Investment Strategy "Canada: A (Probably) Happy Moment In An Otherwise Sad Story," dated July 14, 2017, available at gis.bcaresearch.com

Special Report

Executive Summary From Nixon-Mao To Putin-Xi The geopolitical “big picture” of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the deepening of the Russo-Chinese strategic partnership. While Russia’s economic and military constraints did not prohibit military action in Ukraine, they are still relevant. Most likely they will prevent a broader war with NATO or a total energy embargo of Europe. Still, volatility will persist in the near term as saber-rattling, aftershocks, and spillover incidents will occur this year.  Russo-Chinese relations are well grounded. Russia needs investment capital and resource sales, while China needs overland supply routes and supply security. Both seek to undermine the US in a new game of Great Power competition that will prevent global politics and globalization from normalizing. Tactically we remain defensive but buying opportunities are emerging. We maintain a cyclically constructive view. Favor equity markets of US allies and partners that are geopolitically secure. Trade Recommendation Inception Date Return Long Gold (Strategic) 2019-12-06 32.7% Bottom Line: Tactically investors should remain defensive but cyclically they should look favorably on cheap, geopolitically secure equity markets like those of Australia, Canada, and Mexico. Feature To understand the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the likely consequences, investors need to consider three factors: 1.  Why Russia’s constraints did not prohibit war and how constraints must always be measured against political will. 2.  Why Russia’s constraints will grow more relevant going forward, as the costs of occupation and sanctions take hold, the economy weakens, and sociopolitical pressures build. 3.  Why the struggle of the Great Powers will drive a Russo-Chinese alliance, whose competition with the US-led alliance will further destabilize global trade and investment. Russia’s Geopolitical Will Perhaps the gravest national security threat that Russia can face, according to Russian history, is a western military power based in the Ukraine. Time and again Russia has staged dramatic national efforts at great cost of blood and treasure to defeat western forces that try to encroach on this broad, flat road to Moscow. Putin has been in power for 22 years and his national strategy is well-defined: he aims to resurrect Russian primacy within the former Soviet Union, carve out a regional sphere of influence, and reduce American military threats in Russia’s periphery. He has long aimed to prevent Ukraine from becoming a western defense partner. Chart 1Russia Structured For Conflict While Moscow faced material limitations to military action in Ukraine, these were not prohibitive, as we have argued. Consider the following constraints and their mitigating factors: Costs of war: The first mistake lay in assuming that Russia was not willing to engage in war. Russia had already invaded Ukraine in 2014 and before that Georgia in 2008. The modern Russian economy is structured for conflict: it is heavily militarized (Chart 1). Military spending accounts for 4.3% of GDP, comparable to the United States, also known for waging gratuitous wars and preemptive invasions. Financial burdens: The second mistake was to think that Moscow would avoid conflict for fear of the collapse of the ruble or financial markets. Since Putin rose to power in 2000, the ruble has depreciated by 48% against the dollar and the benchmark stock index has fallen by 57% against EMs. Each new crackdown on domestic or foreign enemies has led to a new round of depreciation and yet Putin remains undeterred from his long-term strategy (Chart 2). Chart 2Putin Doesn't Eschew Conflict For Sake Of Ruble Or Stocks Economic health: Putin’s foreign policy is not constrained by the desire to make the Russian economy more open, complex, advanced, or productive. While China long practiced a foreign policy of lying low, so as to focus on generating wealth that could later be converted into strategic power (which it is doing now), Russia pursued a hawkish foreign policy for the past twenty years despite the blowback on the economy. Russia is still an undiversified petro-state and total factor productivity is approaching zero (Chart 3). Chart 3Putin Doesn't Eschew Conflict For Sake Of Productivity​​​​​​ Chart 4Putin Doesn’t Eschew Conflict For Fear Of Sanctions​​​​​​ Western sanctions: Western sanctions never provided a powerful argument against Russian intervention into Ukraine. Russia knew all along that if it invaded Ukraine, the West would impose a new round of sanctions, as it has done periodically since 2014. The 2014 oil crash had a much greater impact on Russia than the sanctions. Of course, Russia’s overall economic competitiveness is suffering, although it is capable of gaining market share in exporting raw materials, especially as it depreciates its currency (Chart 4). Chart 5Putin Doesn't Eschew Conflict For Sake Of Popular Opinion Public opinion: Surely the average Russian is not interested in Ukraine and hence Putin lacks popular support for a new war? True. But Putin has a strong record of using foreign military adventures as a means of propping up domestic support. Of course, opinion polls, which confirm this pattern, are manipulated and massaged (Chart 5). Nevertheless Russians like all people are highly likely to side with their own country in a military confrontation with foreign countries, at least in the short run. Over the long haul, the public will come to rue the war. Moscow believes that it can manage the domestic fallout when that time comes because it has done so since 2014. We doubt it but that is a question for a later time. Investors also need to consider Putin’s position if he did not stage ever-escalating confrontations with the West. Russia is an autocracy with a weak economy – it cannot win over the hearts and minds of its neighboring nations in a fair, voluntary competition with the West, the EU, and NATO. Russia’s neighbors are made up of formerly repressed Soviet ethnic minorities who now have a chance at national self-determination. But to secure their nationhood, they need economic and military support, and if they receive that support, then they inherently threaten Russia and help the US keep Russia strategically contained. Russia traditionally fights against this risk. Bottom Line: Investors and the media focused on the obstacles to Russian military intervention without analyzing whether there was sufficient political will to surmount the hurdles. Constraints Eroded None of the above suggests that Putin can do whatever he wants. Economic and military constraints are significant. However, constraints erode over time – and they may not be effective when needed. Europe did not promise to cancel all energy trade if Russia invaded: Exports make up 27% of Russian GDP, and 51% of exports go to advanced economies, especially European. Russia is less exposed to trade than the EU but more exposed than the US or even China (Chart 6). However, Russia trades in essential goods, natural resources, and the Europeans cannot afford to cut off their own energy supply. When Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, the Germans responded by building the Nord Stream pipeline, basically increasing energy cooperation. Russia concluded that Europeans, not bound to defend Ukraine by any treaty, would continue to import energy in the event of a conflict limited to Ukraine. Chart 6Putin Limits Conflict For Sake Of EU Energy Trade​​​​​​ Chart 7Putin Limits Conflict For Sake Of Chinese Trade​​​​​​ Russia substitutes China for Europe: As trade with the West declines, Russia is shifting toward the Far East, especially China (Chart 7). China is unlikely to reduce any trade and investment for the sake of Ukraine – it desperately needs the resources and the import-security that strong relations with Russia can provide. It cannot replace Europe – but Russia does not expect to lose the European energy trade entirely. (Over time, of course, the EU/China shift to renewables will undermine Russia’s economy and capabilities.) Ukraine is right next door: Aside from active military personnel, the US advantage over Iraq in 2002-03 was greater than the Russian advantage over Ukraine in 2022 (Chart 8). And yet the US got sucked into a quagmire and ultimately suffered political unrest at home. However, Ukraine is not Afghanistan or Iraq. Russia wagers that it can seize strategic territory, including Kiev, without paying the full price that the Soviets paid in Afghanistan and the US paid in Afghanistan and Iraq. This is a very risky gamble. But the point is that the bar to invading Ukraine was lower than that of other recent invasions – it is not on the opposite side of the world. ​​​​​​​Chart 8Putin Limits Conflict For Fear Of Military Overreach Chart 9Putin Limits Conflict For Fear Of Military Weakness NATO faces mutually assured destruction: NATO’s conventional military weight far surpasses Russia’s. For example, Russia, with its Eurasian Union, does not have enough air superiority to engage in offensive initiatives against Europe, even assuming that the United States is not involved. Even if we assume that China joins Russia in a full-fledged military alliance under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), NATO’s military budget is more than twice as large (Chart 9). However, this military constraint is not operable in the case of Ukraine, which is not a NATO member. Indeed, Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine stems from its fear that Ukraine will become a real or de facto member of NATO. It is the fear of NATO that prompted Russia to attack rather than deterring it, precisely because Ukraine was not a member but wanted to join. Bottom Line: Russia’s constraints did not prohibit military action because several of them had eroded over time. NATO was so threatening as to provoke rather than deter military action. Going forward, Russia’s economic and military constraints will prevent it from expanding the war beyond Ukraine.  Isn’t Russia Overreaching? Yes, Russia is overreaching – the military balances highlighted in Charts 8 and 9 above should make that plain. The Ukrainian insurgency will be fierce and Russia will pay steep costs in occupation and economic sanctions. These will vitiate the economy and popular support for Putin’s regime over the long run. Chart 10The West Is Politically Divided And Vulnerable The West is also vulnerable, however, which has given rise to a fiscal and commodity cycle that helps to explain why Putin staged his risky invasion at this juncture in time: The US and West are politically divided. Western elites see themselves as surrounded by radical parties that threaten to throw them out and overturn the entire political establishment. Their tenuous grip on power is clear from the thin majorities they hold in their legislatures (Chart 10). Nowhere is this clearer than in the United States, where Democrats cannot spare a single seat in the Senate, five in the House of Representatives, in this fall’s midterm elections, yet are facing much bigger losses. Russia believes that its hawkish foreign policy can keep the democracies divided.​​​​​​​ Elites are turning to populist spending: Governments have adopted liberal fiscal policies in the wake of the global financial crisis and the pandemic. They are trying to grow their way out of populist unrest, debt, and various strategic challenges, from supply chains to cyber security to research and development (Chart 11). China is also part of this process, despite its mixed economic policies. The result is greater demand for commodities, which benefits Russia.    Elites are turning to climate change to justify public spending: Governments, particularly in Europe and China, are using fears of climate change to increase their political legitimacy and launch a new government “moonshot” that justifies more robust public investment and pump-priming. The long-term trend toward renewable energy is fundamentally threatening to Russia, although in the short term it makes Russian natural gas and metals all the more necessary. Germany especially envisions natural gas as the fossil-fuel bridge to a green future as it has turned against both nuclear power and coal (Chart 12). Russian aggression will provoke a rethink in some countries but Germany, as a manufacturing economy, is unlikely to abandon its goals for green industrial innovation. Chart 11Politically Vulnerable States Need Fiscal Stimulus​​​​​​ Chart 12The West Reluctant To Abandon Climate Goals​​​​​​ Proactive fiscal and climate policy motivate new capex and commodity cycle: The West’s attempt to revive big government and strategic spending will require vast resource inputs – resources that Russia can sell at higher prices. The new commodity cycle gives Russia maximum leverage over Europe, especially Germany, at this point in time (Chart 13). Later, as inflation and fiscal fatigue halt this cycle, Russia will lose leverage. Chart 13Commodity Cycle Gives Russia Advantage (For Now) Meanwhile Russia’s economic and hence strategic power will subside over time. Russia’s potential GDP growth has fallen since the Great Recession as productivity growth slows and the labor force shrinks (Chart 14). Chart 14Future Will Not Yield Strategic Opportunities For Russia​​​​​​ Chart 15Younger Russians Not Calling The Shots (But Will Someday) In short, the Kremlin has chosen the path of economic austerity and military aggression as a means of maintaining political legitimacy and achieving national security objectives. Western divisions, de-carbonization, the commodity cycle, and Russia’s bleak economic outlook indicated that 2022 was the opportunity to achieve a pressing national security objective, rather than some future date when Russia will be less capable relative to its opponents. In the worst-case scenario – not our base case – the invasion of Ukraine will trigger an escalation of European sanctions that will lead to Russia cutting off Europe’s energy and producing a global energy price shock. And yet that outcome would upset US and European politics in Russia’s favor, while Putin would maintain absolute control at home in a society that is already used to economic austerity and that benefits from high commodity prices. Note that Putin’s strategy will not last forever. Ukraine will mark another case of Russian strategic overreach that will generate a social and political backlash in coming years. While Putin has sufficient support among older, more Soviet-minded Russians for his Ukraine adventure, he lacks support among the younger and middle-aged cohorts who will have to live with the negative economic consequences (Chart 15). The entire former Soviet Union is vulnerable to social unrest and revolution in the coming decade and Russia is no exception. The Russo-Chinese Geopolitical Realignment Chart 16From Nixon-Mao To Putin-Xi From a broader, geopolitical point of view, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drives another nail into the coffin of the post-Cold War system and hyper-globalization. Russia is further divorcing itself from the western economy, with even the linchpin European energy trade falling victim to renewables and diversification. The US and its allies are imposing export controls on critical technologies such as semiconductors against Russia to cripple any attempts at modernization. The US is already restricting China’s access to semiconductors and from now on is locked into a campaign to try to enforce these export controls via secondary sanctions, giving rise to proxy battles in countries that Russia and China use to circumvent the sanctions. Russia will be forced to link its austere, militarized, resource-driven economy to the Chinese economy. Hence a major new geopolitical realignment is taking place between the US, Russia, and China, on the order of previous realignments since World War II. When the Sino-Soviet communist bloc first arose it threatened to overwhelm the US in economic heft and dominate Eurasia. This communist threat drove the US to undertake vast expeditionary wars, such as in South Korea and Vietnam. These were too costly, so the US sought economic engagement with China in 1972, which isolated the Soviet Union and ultimately helped bring about its demise. Yet China’s economic boom predictably translated into a strategic rise that began to threaten US preeminence, especially since the Great Recession. Today Russia and China have no option other than to cooperate in the face of the US’s increasingly frantic attempts to preserve its global status – and China’s economic growth and technological potential makes this alliance formidable (Chart 16). In short, the last vestiges of the “Nixon-Mao” moment are fading and the “Putin-Xi” alignment is already well-established. Russia cannot accept vassalage to China but it can make many compromises for the sake of strategic security. Their economies are much more complimentary today than they were at the time of the Sino-Soviet split. And Russia’s austere economy will not collapse as long as it retains some energy trade with Europe throughout the pivot to China. In turn the US will attempt to exploit Russian and Chinese regional aggression as a basis for a revitalization of its alliances. But Europe will dampen US enthusiasm by preserving economic engagement with Russia and China. The EU is increasingly an independent geopolitical actor and a neutral one at that. This environment of multipolarity – or Great Power Struggle – will define the coming decades. It will ensure not only periodic shocks, like the Ukraine war, but also a steady undercurrent of growing government involvement in the global economy in pursuit of supply security, energy security, and national security. Competition for security is not stabilizing but destabilizing. Hyper-globalization has given way to hypo-globalization, as regional geopolitical blocs take the place of what once promised to be a highly efficient and thoroughly interconnected global economy. Investment Takeaways Tactically, Geopolitical Strategy believes it is too soon to go long emerging markets. Russia is at war, China is reverting to autocracy, and Brazil is still on the path to debt crisis. Multiples have compressed sharply but the bad news is not fully priced (Chart 17). The dollar is likely to be resilient as the Fed hikes rates and a major European war rages. Europe’s geopolitical and energy insecurity will weigh on investment appetite and corporate earnings. American equities are likely to outperform in the short run. Chart 17Investors Should Not Bet On Russian And European Equities In This Context​​​​​ Chart 18Investors Find Value, Minimize Risk In Geopolitically Secure Equity Markets​​​​​​ Cyclically, global equities outside the US, and pro-cyclical assets offer better value, as long as the war in Ukraine remains contained, a Europe-wide energy shock is averted, and China’s policy easing secures its economic recovery. While European equities will snap back, Europe still faces structural challenges and eastern European emerging markets face a permanent increase in geopolitical risk due to Russian geopolitical decline and aggression. Investors should seek markets that are both cheap and geopolitically secure – namely Australia, Canada, and Mexico (Chart 18). We are also bullish on India over the long run.    Matt Gertken Chief Geopolitical Strategist mattg@bcaresearch.com Strategic Themes Open Tactical Positions (0-6 Months) Open Cyclical Recommendations (6-18 Months)

Special Report

Executive Summary EU-Russia Energy Trade To Persist Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent it from becoming a defense partner of the US and its allies. It is not likely to attack NATO members, which share a mutual defense treaty, so the war is limited in scope. Spillovers can occur but the US and Russia have 73 years of experience avoiding direct war. The US and EU will levy sweeping sanctions but they will not halt Russian energy exports, as that would cause a recession in Europe. European political leaders would likely fall from power in the coming years if there were a full-scale energy crisis. European nations will leverage Russian aggression to strengthen their popular support at home, while diversifying away from Russian energy over the long run. Europe will impose tough sanctions on Russia’s non-energy sectors, including finance and technology, to hobble the regime. China will consolidate power at home and strengthen ties with Russia but a war over Taiwan is a medium-to-long term risk.   Bottom Line: Investors should be cautious over the very near term but should prepare to buy the dip of a geopolitical incident that is generally limited to Ukraine and the Black Sea area. Supply responses from oil producers will remove the risk premium from oil prices and send the price of Brent crude to $85 per barrel by the end of the year. EU-Russia energy flows are the key risk to monitor. Feature Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine on February 24. The invasion was not limited to the far eastern corner of the country but involved attacks in the capital Kiev and in the far west and the coastline. Hence investors should proceed on the assumption that Russia will invade all of Ukraine even if it ends up limiting its invasion, as we expect (Map 1). Map 1Russian Invasion Of Ukraine 2022 It is critical for investors to understand the cause of the war in order to gauge its scope and adjust their risk appetite accordingly. Consider: Ukraine does not have mutual defense treaties that automatically trigger a broader war. Russia is attacking Ukraine to prevent it from becoming a defense partner of the US and its allies. Russia does not have the military capacity to attack the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members, which have a mutual defense pact. Russia is attacking Ukraine because it does not have a mutual defense pact but was seeking one. Russia aims to neutralize Ukraine. If Moscow sacks Kiev and sets up a puppet state, then Ukraine will not seek western defense cooperation for the foreseeable future. If Russia conquers key territories to strengthen its control over Ukraine, then future Ukrainian governments will limit relations with the West for fear of Russian absorption. Russia is likely to seize coastal territory to ensure the long-term ability to blockade Ukraine. Russia will not withdraw troops until it has changed the government and seized key territories. Russia and NATO have no interest in war with each other. In the immediate fog of war, global financial markets will experience uncertainty about whether fighting will expand into a broader war between Russia and NATO. Such an expansion is unlikely because of mutually assured destruction (MAD) due to nuclear weapons. The US and Europe have already pledged that they will not send troops to fight in Ukraine. They will send troops and arms to support neighboring NATO states in central Europe, such as the Baltic states, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and others. This will serve as a deterrent to Russia to keep its operations limited. Spillover incidents can and will occur, such as with Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 in 2014, but the US and Russia have 73 years of experience avoiding direct war, including when Russia invaded Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, and Afghanistan in 1979. The US and EU will levy sweeping sanctions but the EU will not halt Russian energy exports. When Russia first invaded Ukraine and seized territory in 2014, Germany responded by working with Russia to build the Nord Stream II pipeline so as to import energy directly from Russia and circumvent Ukraine. This historical fact over the past eight years reveals Germany’s true interests. Thus energy cooperation increased as a result of Russian aggression. Of course, Germany has suspended the certification of that pipeline in light of today’s invasion, but it was not yet operating, so energy flows are not impeded, and it still physically exists for future operation when Germany finds it politically expedient. Hungary, Italy, Finland, the Czech Republic and others will also need to keep up Russian energy flows. Chart 1EU-Russia Energy Trade To Persist Nevertheless, a cessation of energy flows is still the most important risk for investors to monitor, whether triggered by European boycott or Russian embargo. That would cause a recession in Europe. Recession would cause European political leaders to fall from power in the coming years, which explains why they will not pursue that objective in face of Russian aggression. Even the US is vulnerable to a global price shock (during a midterm election year) and hence will allow the EU to keep importing Russian energy, whatever its sanctions package may contain. True, Russia may cut off natural gas flows via Ukraine, which account for nearly 20% of Europe’s imports (Chart 1). Moreover, Europe may threaten or claim that they will sanction the energy sector. But most flows will likely continue. Europe will diversify away from Russian energy over the long run. Instead of cutting off their own vital energy supplies, European nations will leverage Russian aggression to strengthen their popular support at home, while initiating emergency state-led efforts to diversify away from Russian energy over the long run through renewables and imports from the US and its allies. This will be advantageous to European democracies that were already struggling to increase political legitimacy amid nascent populism – they will now have a crusade with which to rally their people and maintain fiscal support for their economy: energy security. Europe will sanction Russia’s non-energy sector. Europe will impose tough sanctions on Russia’s non-energy sectors, including finance and technology, to hobble the regime. Russia will eventually be cut off from the SWIFT banking communications network, since it already has a rudimentary alternative that it developed in recent years, but Germany will not agree to cut it off until the payment alternate to continue energy flows can be arranged, which is ultimately possible. China will take advantage of the moment but is probably not ready to invade Taiwan. China could seize the opportunity to consolidate power at home and it may increase pressure on Taiwan through rhetoric, sanctions, or cyber-attacks, but it is not likely to invade Taiwan. An amphibious invasion of the globally critical territory of Taiwan is far riskier for China than a land invasion of the non-critical territory of Ukraine is for Russia. Russia’s strategic calculations and timing are separate from China’s, despite their growing de facto alliance. But a war in the Taiwan Strait is at risk over the long run, as the situation is geopolitically unsustainable, for reasons similar to that of Ukraine. The situation in Ukraine is likely to get worse before it gets better, implying that investors should expect further volatility in risk assets in the near term. Structurally, the shift to a less geopolitically stable multipolar world will favor defense and cybersecurity stocks. “Great Power Struggle” is our top geopolitical investment theme over the long run and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine highlights its continuing relevance. Bottom Line: A buying opportunity for heavily discounted, pro-cyclical or high-beta assets is emerging rapidly, given our assessment, and we will monitor events over the coming weeks to identify when such a shift is prudent. A wholesale energy cutoff to Europe is the chief risk, as it would justify downgrading global equities relative to long-maturity bonds on a six-to-12 month horizon. Investment Takeaways Global Investment Strategy: With real rates coming down, owning gold remains an attractive hedge. As a fairly cheap and defensive currency, a long yen position is advisable. Assuming the conflict remains contained to Ukraine, equities and other risk assets should recover over the remainder of the year. The geopolitical premium in oil prices should also come down. Consistent with our Commodity & Energy Strategy views, our Global Investment Strategy service is closing its long Brent trade recommendation today for a gain of 24.0%. Commodities & Energy Strategy: While oil exports from Russia are not expected to diminish as a result of the invasion, it will prompt increased production from core OPEC producers – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait – to take the elevated risk premium out of Brent crude oil prices and allow refiners to rebuild inventories. The US and Iran may rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal, which would add about 1.0mm b/d of production to the market – Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea did not prevent the original nuclear deal. These production increases would take prices from the current $105 per barrel level to $85 per barrel by the second half of 2022 and keep it there throughout 2023, according to our base case view. This change marks an increase on our earlier expectation of an average $79.75 per barrel in 2023 in our previous forecast. European Investment Strategy: European equities are likely to continue to underperform in the near-term. Even if Russia and Europe avoid a full embargo of Russian energy shipments to the West, the disruption caused by a rupture of natural gas flows via Ukraine will keep European gas prices at elevated levels. Additionally, investors will continue to handicap the needed risk premia to compensate for the low but real threat of an energy crisis, which would prove particularly debilitating for Hungary, Poland, Germany, Czechia and Italy (Chart 2). Moreover, European equities sport a strong value and cyclical profile with significant overweight positions in financial and industrial equities. Industrials will suffer from higher input costs. European financials will suffer from a decline in yields as hawks in the European Central Bank are already softening their rhetoric on the need to tighten policy. However, due to the likely temporary nature of the dislocation, we do not recommend selling Europe outright and instead will stick with our current hedges, such as selling EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF. The evolution of the military situation on the ground will warrant a re-valuation of this hedging strategy next week. The euro will soon become a buy. Chart 2EU Economy Highly Vulnerable To Any Large Energy Cutoff Foreign Exchange Strategy: The Ukraine crisis will lead to a period of strength for the US dollar (DXY). Countries requiring foreign capital will be most at risk from an escalation in tensions. We still suspect the DXY will peak near 98-100, but volatility will swamp fundamental biases. Geopolitical Strategy: On a strategic basis, stick with our long trades in gold, arms manufacturers, UK equities relative to EU equities, and the Japanese yen. On a tactical basis, stick with long defensive sectors, large caps, Japanese equities relative to German, and Mexican equities relative to emerging markets. We will revisit these trades next week, after the European energy question becomes clearer, to determine whether to book profits on our bearish tactical trades.   – The BCA Research Team  

Special Report

Executive Summary US Policy Uncertainty Rises With ERP The US is witnessing a rolling political crisis that will escalate again in the 2022-24 election cycle and presents a tail-risk of constitutional fracture. However, fundamental economic, constitutional, and geopolitical factors are structurally positive. US domestic political risk is not greater than foreign geopolitical risk affecting other major markets like Europe. The US faces challenges to maintain its competitive and technological edge. But the combination of a vibrant private sector and increasingly proactive fiscal policy give reason for optimism. The 2022-24 macroeconomic and political cycles will likely cause an increase in policy uncertainty and hence the equity risk premium – but foreign markets face even greater risks. Recommendation (Tactical) Inception Level Initiation Date Stop Loss Long DXY   Feb 23/2022   Bottom Line: Go tactically long US dollar (DXY) on the anticipation that US and especially global policy uncertainty and political risk premiums will rise. Feature With President Joe Biden’s approval rating falling to a new net low of -13%, investors are starting to ask about the future of American politics once again. It is highly likely that Democrats will lose control of Congress this fall, setting up a tumultuous 2024 election cycle. With political polarization at historic highs, it is worth asking whether US policy uncertainty will inject a risk premium into US equities. Our answer is yes, uncertainty and the risk premium will rise. But the US also contains fundamental strengths, especially relative to other major markets. With geopolitical risk rising for Europe as Russia engages in new military adventures, the US market will remain attractive over the long run. Natural Advantages Any fundamental assessment of US capability should begin with its people. The US working-age population continues to grow, while that of Europe and China has started to plateau or decline (Chart 1). China’s working population is four times bigger than that of the US, so if China can manage its transition to a higher-wage economy (i.e. if it can maintain productivity growth) then it can compete for global investment capital. But the US’s continued labor force growth, despite social change and political instability, suggests that the US will not follow Japan and Europe into sluggish trend growth, unless sharp curbs on immigration are put into place. The maxim that “the people are the riches of a nation” is only true if economic opportunity and job creation are sufficient. People need access to capital to become more productive. Europe has the largest capital stock in the world, at $100,000 per capita, compared to the US’s $71,000 and China’s $33,000. But Europe’s capital stock has been flat-to-down since the Great Recession. China’s capital stock is rising rapidly and has a lot further to go given its low level. But the country also faces a difficult transition to a new economic model and a debt-deleveraging process that may slow down the pace of capital deepening in the coming years, forcing the government to step in and promote capital projects (Chart 2). Meanwhile the US’s capital stock continues to grow steadily.  Chart 1The People Are The Riches Of A Nation... Chart 2...As Long As The People Are Not Starved Of Capital Since the shale boom the US has become nearly energy self-sufficient and now produces 20% of global oil and fuel. This development is a blessing from an economic and national security perspective. But it also poses the risk of a kind of resource curse, in which the US could lack the motivation to pioneer renewable energy technology. Currently the US only produces 4% of the world’s renewable energy, a share that has been declining. Europe and China are both energy import-dependent, which is a national security vulnerability, and they will continue to invest in renewable solutions to improve their energy security (Chart 3). Russian aggression will motivate Europe to go down this path, whereas China will go down this path for fear of American strategic containment. For now, however, the US is energy self-sufficient while technologically capable of advancing in renewable energy. The US has a range of structural problems: rising income inequality, extreme political polarization, and a policy turn away from globalization over the past 20 years. However, these problems have not weighed on GDP per capita growth. Of course, the greatest strides in GDP per capita are occurring in the developing world: China and India show the most promise. But the US’s GDP per capita is still growing at an annual average rate of 3%, putting it alongside Germany and ahead of the much less developed Brazil (Chart 4). Germany did not see anywhere near as big of increases in inequality and polarization and is still generally committed to globalization, yet its GDP per capita growth is about the same as the US’s, despite faster US population growth. Chart 3North America's Natural Resource Blessing Chart 4Does Political Instability Harm Productivity? Partisanship Means Big Government None of the above benefits have been reversed by the US’s historic increase in political polarization and partisanship over the past three decades. Make no mistake, the latter trends are harmful and could weigh on US stability and productivity in coming years, primarily through deteriorating fiscal management. But so far their bad effects have been contained. The two US political parties have won control of the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives a roughly equal number of times. While Republicans have a larger regional presence, across the 50 states, and tend to perform better in the Electoral College and the Senate, this advantage is very slight judging by the number of electoral victories. Meanwhile Democrats have a larger popular presence and perform better in the House of Representatives but this advantage is also slight (Chart 5). The two parties are evenly balanced, which is one explanation for why they compete so viciously for marginal victories. But it also prevents either party from achieving absolute power and distorting or corrupting American bureaucracy and corporate structures to perpetuate single-party rule. Chart 5An Even Balance Of Power Between The Parties The size of the federal government fluctuates within a fairly low and narrow range. Federal government receipts hovered around 16% of GDP in the 1950s-60s, peaked at 20.4% in 2000, and today stand right in the middle of this post-war range at 18.5%. Major increases in revenue follow the business cycle and it is rare that Democrats manage to raise taxes enough to have a substantial impact. This point is clear from looking at periods when Democrats controlled both the House of Representatives and the White House (shaded areas in Chart 6): the large increases in tax take mostly coincide with economic growth spurts. It is conceivable that the Biden administration will raise a minimum corporate tax this year via the budget reconciliation process, but the odds of that have been falling and it will not change the pattern in this chart, which shows rising revenue relative to GDP as the economy recovers but is not likely to match what was seen in the late 1990s. From the perspective of federal government spending, the growth in the size of government is clearer, rising from the post-war 15% of GDP to today’s 25% of GDP, with a pronounced structural uptrend. Republicans rarely control both the White House and the House of Representatives and only in the 1950s did they reduce spending outright. The past two Republican administrations presided over large increases in spending, while also capping revenue via tax cuts (Chart 7). Chart 6US Federal Revenue Does Not Change Much Over Time Chart 7US Federal Spending Does Not Change Much Over Time Thus in America’s highly polarized and populist political scene, Republicans fail to cut spending while Democrats fail to increase taxes. The takeaway is that budget deficits will remain structurally large. The political outlook reinforces this point as it promises a return to congressional gridlock. Historically speaking, Biden’s net negative approval rating implies that Democrats will lose 40 seats in the House of Representatives and 4 seats in the Senate this fall. It is unlikely that Democratic fortunes will improve much between now and this November given that midterm elections almost always punish the ruling party and midterm voters tend to make up their minds early in the year. Moreover the ruling party’s ailments are not easily reversed: headline inflation is running at 7.5%, crime and immigration are growing at historic rates, while foreign policy challenges will likely feed the narrative that the Biden administration is weak on the global stage. The likelihood of congressional gridlock from 2022-24 (and maybe beyond) entails that future increases in fiscal spending will be automatic, through lack of entitlement reform, rather than through grandiose new spending programs, which will not pass into law. As such, “Big Government” is back but it is still “limited government” in the US tradition – i.e. limited big government. Neither party has a blank check or dominates for long. And if anything a period of fiscal normalization (or pseudo-normalization) is on the horizon. Constitutional And Geopolitical Advantages The balance of the parties is not accidental but essential to the American constitutional system. This system is based on the tradition of “mixed” or “balanced” constitutionalism, which developed in ancient Greece and Rome and came to the Americas via the United Kingdom. The system can be discussed in philosophical or ideological terms but it is rooted in real, physical, institutional power. The tradition begins with great philosophers like Plato and Aristotle but is perhaps best illustrated by the Greek historian Polybius. Polybius observed a violent historical cycle that ceaselessly shifted from despotism to oligarchy to the tyranny of the masses to anarchy and finally back to despotism. He argued that the Roman constitution, by mingling the different social classes (the leaders, the elite, and the masses), could produce a durable constitutional order that would prolong the time period until the state decayed and collapsed. We call this the “Polybius Solution” (Diagram 1). Diagram 1The Polybius Solution The US constitution is successful because, like several of the oldest European constitutions, it mixes the different social classes and sources of power so that the leaders, elites, and masses each have a share in the political system and no single group can predominate and overwhelm the others. It is an extra benefit that the US constitution is one of the longest continually operating constitutions in the world, since the long fortification of the system in practice helps provide sociopolitical and economic stability, whereas the ideas themselves are not well taught or understood (Table 1). The fact that the constitution is written in a single document is useful but not decisive, as the British constitution similarly provides stability over long periods of change and upheaval both at home and abroad. Table 1The Balanced Constitution Investors should not mistake this constitutional system merely for a set of preferential ideas. Opinions change very easily. But it is physically difficult for ruling classes to take away rights and privileges that the masses of people have been given. Thus the mixture of constitutional powers is based in political realism, not idealism. The US constitution operates not because Americans are more well-meaning, educated, civic-minded, altruistic, or enlightened than others. It operates because the oligarchy is not powerful enough to disenfranchise the democracy, while the democracy is not powerful enough to purge the oligarchy. The government leaders themselves (the president, the lawmakers, the career bureaucrats, etc) are not powerful enough to suspend term limits and stay in power forever. Nor have they been able to ally with either the oligarchy or the democracy closely enough to permanently exclude the other one from its share of power within the system. There is a clear and present danger that the constitutional system could come under too much strain and fracture amid recent power struggles among the American social classes. The struggles between the classes have intensified since the fall of the Soviet Union (which deprived America of a common enemy) and especially the Great Recession (which provoked populist democratic movements). Some fear that a president could turn into an autocrat and refuse to yield power, others fear that the oligarchic faction could steal elections or manipulate the legal system, others fear that the democratic faction could steal elections or ride roughshod over legal procedures. Of these risks, the risk of autocracy is the lowest, while the risk of institutional corruption or electoral manipulation or majoritarian rule-breaking are the highest. Certainly political risk and policy uncertainty will rise from current levels over the 2022-24 election cycle, which promises to be extremely disruptive. However, there are three reasons to hold the baseline view that the US political structure will remain stable enough to sustain economic productivity over the coming years, despite enormous upheaval on the cyclical level of politics. The US remains secure from invasion, while provoked to meet rising geopolitical challenges. Neither Canada nor Mexico poses a fundamental threat to US national security – the US is capable of militarizing the borders, however undesirable – and the US is inaccessible to more distant enemies due to the tyranny of distance across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Yet the resurgence of Russia and the rise of China are likely to present common external rivals around which America’s elites will attempt to galvanize public opinion to maintain national security and keep themselves in office. Because elections still tend to swing on historically critical regions, such as the Midwestern heartland, politicians will need to pursue some degree of economic nationalism to stay in power (Map 1). Map 1USA: Splendid Isolation? The US continues to benefit from a “brain drain” of talented foreign immigrants and will keep that door open if and when it curbs immigration more broadly. Immigration flows into the US are typically robust according to various indicators, including the numbers of newly naturalized citizens, which is itself an indicator of the US’s abiding advantages (Chart 8). The global pandemic caused a decline that is quickly rebounding. Immigration is one of the major outstanding sources of power struggle between the US political factions. It will become a centerpiece of the 2022-24 election cycle. The outcome is unclear. But general American attitudes toward immigration are not hostile, while elite attitudes favor immigration. Therefore whatever government policy finally emerges, it will likely preserve the US’s national interest of continuing to import global talent . Chart 8People Voting With Their Feet The US’s chronic trade imbalance generated a new policy consensus in favor of strengthening American competitiveness. The US pursued a policy of globalization and de-industrialization for decades but it became untenable in the wake of the Great Recession, which spawned a populist backlash. The Biden administration has largely coopted the Trump administration’s hawkish approach to trade. While US trade and current account deficits will remain very large for the foreseeable future, reflecting a fundamental imbalance of savings relative to investment (Chart 9), nevertheless the US will undertake targeted policies to improve supply chain resilience and domestic high-tech competitive edge. The Congress’s likely passage of the American Competes Act of 2022 exemplifies the new bipartisan consensus around the need to invest in American industrial and technological capabilities so as to better compete with great powers overseas (Table 2). Chart 9US Competitiveness Waning? Table 2US Bipartisan Consensus On Restoring Competitiveness By contrast, other regions face greater geopolitical threats to their homelands and greater difficulties coping with hypo-globalization. Europe’s strategic vulnerability to Russia will dampen investment sentiment and risk appetite. Russia’s economic trajectory has suffered since 2014 and its ongoing conflict with the West will result in isolation and lower productivity. China will see rising tensions with its neighbors due to its economic transition, emerging protectionism, and its need to become more assertive for the sake of supply security. By contrast the US is relatively insulated. Investment Takeaways The US’s economic, constitutional, and geopolitical advantages are structural positives. Rising domestic policy uncertainty over the 2022-24 election cycle might overshadow these positives temporarily, but they are likely to persist over the long run. Increasing geopolitical risks abroad suggest that domestic American policy uncertainty is likely to be overrated. Great power competition – stemming from geopolitical risks – will fuel capital spending among the major nations as well as research and development investments. In this respect the United States faces challenges to maintain its competitive edge. But it is still the leader and the combination of a vibrant private sector and an increasingly proactive public sector are positive (Chart 10). Are the US’s structural advantages already priced? To a great extent, yes. The US equity risk premium today stands at 300 basis points, compared to 660 in Europe and 570 in China. And yet global geopolitical risk, highlighted by Russia’s escalating conflict with the West, suggest that this divergence can get worse before it gets better. We expect the 2022-24 election cycle to cause an increase in policy uncertainty and the political risk premium. But as things stand the increase in uncertainty and risk premiums abroad will be even greater (Chart 11). Chart 10US Investing In The Future? Chart 11US Stocks Priced The Good News?       Matt Gertken Senior Vice President Chief US Political Strategist mattg@bcaresearch.com   Strategic View Open Tactical Positions (0-6 Months) Open Cyclical Recommendations (6-18 Months)   Table A2Political Risk Matrix Table A3US Political Capital Index Chart A1Presidential Election Model Chart A2Senate Election Model Table A4APolitical Capital: White House And Congress Table A4BPolitical Capital: Household And Business Sentiment Table A4CPolitical Capital: The Economy And Markets Footnotes  

Executive Summary A Swedish Warning Stocks are oversold but downside risks persist. The Fed is on the verge of beginning a tightening cycle, which creates a process often linked to deeper and longer equity corrections around the world. Global economic activity is decelerating, as growth transitions away from splurging on consumer goods to a return to trend in the service sector. Equities are more levered to industrial than services activity, which creates a risk window. Ukraine remains another near-term hurdle. Equity risk premia are not elevated enough to compensate for these threats. Despite near-term risks, the equity bull market will recover and Europe stocks will ultimately outperform. Bottom Line: Investors need to continue to hold portfolio hedges as the near-term outlook remains treacherous for equities. Nonetheless, a wholesale portfolio liquidation is unwarranted as we face a mid-cycle slowdown, not a recession. Feature Last week’s pattern of relaxation and renewed tensions in Ukraine is an acute reminder that markets remain fragile in the near-term. Investors must still contend with an imminent monetary tightening cycle in the US. Additionally, a few cracks are emerging on the global growth picture as a transition from spending on goods to services takes place. Under this light, we worry that risk premia remain too low, and that equities are still vulnerable to further near-term pullbacks. The situation is particularly complex for Europe, which is most exposed to the Ukrainian problems and to the global manufacturing cycle. We thus continue to recommend investors exposed to Europe hold protections. Oversold Enough? Many commentators argue that following the January equity sell-off, the mood of investors soured enough to warrant buying equities anew and closing our eyes. Most famously, the AAII Bull/Bear ratio is once again flirting with its 2018 and 2020 lows, two periods that, in hindsight, proved to be selling climaxes (Chart 1). The picture is complex. BCA’s Equity Capitulation Index is indeed becoming oversold (Chart 2). However, its reading is murky. It can either decline further, which would imply greater weaknesses in stocks, or rebound. Our first instinct is to look at the indicator’s behavior at the onset of Fed tightening cycles, which constitute close historical analogues: Chart 2... But Maybe Not Enough Chart 1Stocks Are Oversold...   In late 2015, when the last Fed tightening cycle began, the Capitulation Index plunged to much lower levels as stocks collapsed. In the background, the global economy was weakened by EM countries hammered by China’s slowdown and balance of payments crises. Around the hiking cycle that begun in June 2004, the Capitulation Index never plunged considerably, but the S&P 500 fell more than 8% between March and August 2004, in a volatile pattern. Back then, both US and global growth was very robust. In 1999, once the Fed resumed hiking rates after the 75bps of cuts following the LTCM debacle, the Capitulation Index and equities were very resilient. This strength persisted until the Nasdaq peaked in March 2000. The S&P 500 formed a complex top between March and August before starting a relentless collapse that September. Following the onset of the 1994-1995 tightening cycle, the Capitulation Index collapsed to much more oversold readings than current ones and equities entered a range-bound volatile episode that lasted until Q1 1995, as the Fed stopped hiking rates. The economy was replete with inflation fears and a mid-cycle slowdown was descending upon the US. The hiking cycle that started in 1988 did not witness significant downside in the Capitulation Index and stocks, but it took place soon after the 1987 crash when equities had become exceptionally oversold. Black Monday itself happened as inflation fear rose as a result of a weak dollar and as the Fed hiked rates through 1987. In 1984, the rate hike cycle was accompanied by a collapse in the Capitulation Index. The tightening in financial conditions caused by the Fed was exacerbated by the surge in the dollar that hurt US profitability and increased EM borrowing costs tremendously. After the 1981 hiking cycle, the Capitulation Index plunged as the US economy entered the second leg of the early 1980s double-dip recession. The latter was an economic crisis prompted by Federal Chairman Paul Volcker’s willingness to put an end to the inflation mentality of the 1970s. These historical experiences highlight one thing: Economic conditions were key to periods when the beginning of a tightening cycle caused a deeper correction in stocks than the one witnessed until now. Economic Clouds Today, the big question shaping the investment world is inflation. BCA expects inflation to peak over the coming months, whether in the US or in Europe. However, this process will take more time. CPI will not crest until after the Fed has begun to hike rates. In the meantime, there are plenty of factors that could easily fan inflation worries and, consequently, a continued upward repricing of the Fed’s interest rate path in the next few weeks. As Arthur Budaghyan highlighted in the most recent Emerging Market Strategy Report, US labor costs are rapidly rising, with the Atlanta Fed Median Wage growth measure up 5.1% annually and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) expanding at a 4.5% annual rate. Of particular worry, this surge in wages does not reflect underlying productivity and unit labor costs, which are up 3.2% annually (Chart 3), their highest rate since 2001, when the Fed funds rate was 4% and 10-year Treasurys yielded 5.4%.  Chart 3US Wage-Price Spiral? Elevated unit labor costs are a powerful inducement for inflation and, thus, are likely to continue to fan inflation fears among market participants. Of particular concern today, the rise in unit labor costs is not counterbalanced by a decline in US import prices and foreign deflationary pressures. Inflation fears remain a major risk for the market. As our BCA Monetary Indicator highlights, the liquidity backdrop is not supportive of equities anymore (Chart 4). Moreover, the technical picture is deteriorating, while speculation remains elevated. With investors fretting about the threat of inflation, the danger is that they start to anticipate a greater deterioration in monetary conditions. The problem is not unique to the US. At the global level, 75% of central banks are tightening policy and those that have not yet done so are gearing up to remove monetary accommodation. Adding to inflation fears are signs of a slowdown in the global goods sector. This slowdown reflects a natural transition from the spending binge on goods that took place during the pandemic, which is ebbing, to service spending, which is accelerating (Chart 5). This pattern is particularly evident for US consumers, the largest spenders in the world. Chart 5Transitioning From Goods To Services Chart 4Deteriorating Liquidity Conditions   One of the world’s most sensitive economies to the global industrial cycle is already feeling the pinch from this adjustment: Sweden. Swedish economic numbers have been weakening and Swedish assets are particularly soft (Chart 6), which heralds poorly for the global manufacturing sector. This deceleration in goods spending and industrial activity is a problem for equities because stock market profits are more geared toward the evolution of the industrial cycle than the service sector (Chart 7). Chart 6A Swedish Warning Chart 7Manufacturing, Not Services, Drives Profits Investment Conclusions In this context, it is prudent to maintain hedges to protect stock holdings. It is commonly argued that stocks are expensive, but if one considers the low level of bond yields, these valuations can be justified. Chart 8 challenges this notion. Yes, the earnings yield is still very elevated relative to 30-year Treasury bond yields; however, it is at its lowest in 42 years against core inflation. Why would core inflation be relevant? In a context in which investors are worried about the impact of inflation on both profit margins (higher labor costs) and the direction of policy, they are unlikely to remain unmoved by inflation fears, especially as the perception of higher policy rates may lift rates higher. Moreover, with many investors anxious that the Fed is falling far behind the curve, the marginal market players could easily become the individuals concerned that a catch up by the Fed will lead the economy into a recession. Considering the risks linked to Ukraine, the potentially negative impact on profitability of slowing goods spending, the growing policy uncertainty globally and in the US, and the inversion of many segments of the yield curve, prudence remains appropriate (Chart 9). Chart 8Value Is In The Eye Of The Beholder Chart 9Rising Policy Uncertainty Chart 10The Importance Of Manufacturing To Europe The problem for European equities is their elevated beta and pro-cyclicality. A pullback in US stocks will automatically drag down European stocks. Moreover, the region’s heavy reliance on manufacturing activity is reflected in the sectoral tilt of European benchmarks. As a result, the performance of European stocks is particularly sensitive to the evolution of the global industrial cycle (Chart 10). Add the fact that European economies are much more exposed to potential energy market disruptions emanating from Ukraine and the recent rebound in Europe’s relative equity performance becomes tenuous at best. Why would these dynamics be temporary and only warrant hedges, not a cyclical underweight in stocks and Europe? First, the inflation fear will recede in the second half of 2022. Our Global Supply Disruption Index has peaked and suggests that inflation surprises will soon ebb. Moreover, a measure of suppliers’ constraints based on the ISM Supplier Delivery Times, Backlog of Orders, Prices Paid, and Inventories is also rolling over (Chart 11). Second, a deepening of the stock market correction will tighten financial conditions and push credit spreads higher. This is a deflationary process that will cause inflation fears to recede and, thus, the pricing of expected Fed rate hikes to lessen. Third, the slowdown in the goods sector is concentrated among consumer goods. Capex will firm up. Capex intentions are elevated in Europe and the US, and global capital goods orders remain robust, despite having decelerated from their extraordinary rebound following the Q1 2020 shutdowns (Chart 12). Moreover, the political and corporate demand to build greater redundancy in global supply chains following the disruptions caused by the Sino-US trade war and COVID-19 will also boost corporate investments for a few more years. This means that many industrial sectors will recover globally and propel industrial equities higher. Chart 11Apex Bottlenecks? Chart 12Capex Will Stay Strong Fourth, Matt Gertken, BCA’s geopolitical strategist, continues to see a limited Ukrainian conflict as the most likely outcome of the current tensions.  As a result, any dislocation to global stocks and European assets caused by a conflict will be transitory. Finally, the business cycle has further to run. In 1994/95 and in 2015/16, the Fed tightening cycle materialized around the time of a mid-cycle slowdown. The economy recovered and profit firmed up anew, which allowed stocks to rebound. The Fed Funds rate is rising but remains below the neutral rate. Interest rates in Europe also have ample scope to rise before monetary policy becomes tight. Simultaneously, the recovering service sector will continue to support employment and, thus, final demand. Equity bear markets rarely materialize outside of recessions (Chart 13).   Chart 13Bear Markets Demand A Recession Bottom Line: Global equities are oversold, but the combination of rising inflation, Fed tightening, Ukrainian risks, and a transition from a goods-driven recovery to a service sector-led economy means that stocks risk becoming even more oversold in the near term. European equities are not immune to these threats. While rising rates are a lesser problem for Europe than the US, the developments in Ukraine and a manufacturing transition represent greater hurdles. Ultimately, the difficulties faced by stocks reflect a mid-cycle slowdown taking place alongside a period of policy tightening. It will be, therefore, temporary. Consequently, investors should not abandon stocks, but rather continue to hold protections.   Mathieu Savary, Chief European Strategist Mathieu@bcaresearch.com Tactical Recommendations Cyclical Recommendations Structural Recommendations Closed Trades

Executive Summary Russian Invasion Scenarios And Likely Equity Impact The Ukraine crisis is escalating as predicted. We maintain our odds: 65% limited incursion, 10% full-scale invasion, 25% diplomatic de-escalation. Russia says it will take “military-technical” measures as its demands remain unmet, while the US says an invasion is imminent. Fighting has picked up in the Donbas region. Our Ukraine decision tree highlights that the key to a last-minute diplomatic resolution is a western renunciation of defense cooperation with Ukraine after a verified Russian troop withdrawal. The opposite is occurring as we go to press. Stay long gold, defensives over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Stay long cyber security stocks and aerospace/defense stocks relative to the broad market. Trade Recommendation Inception Date Return LONG GOLD (STRATEGIC) 2019-12-06 27.6% Bottom Line: Our 75% subjective odds of a partial Russian re-invasion of Ukraine appear to be materializing. At the same time, we are not as optimistic about an imminent solution to the US-Iran nuclear problem. A near-term energy price spike is negative for global growth so we recommend sticking with our defensive tactical trades. Feature Chart 1Ukraine: Don't Be Complacent Fears about a heightened war in Ukraine fell back briefly this week before redoubling. Russian President Vladimir Putin showed a willingness to pursue diplomacy but then western officials refuted Russian claims that it was reducing troops around Ukraine. US President Biden said Russia is highly likely to invade Ukraine in the next few days. The Russian foreign ministry sent a letter reiterating Russia’s earlier threat that it will take unspecified “military-technical” actions given that its chief demands have not been met by the United States. A worsening security outlook as we go to press will push the dollar up against the euro, the euro up against the ruble, will lead to global equities falling (with US not falling as much as ex-US), and global bond yields falling (Chart 1). To assess the situation we need to weigh the signs of escalation against those of de-escalation. What were the signs of de-escalation? First, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed it is reducing troop levels near Ukraine, although NATO and the western powers have not verified any drawdown. An unspecified number of troops were said to return to their barracks in the Western and Southern Military Regions, according to Russian Defense Ministry spokesman General Igor Konashenkov. A video showed military units and hardware pulling back from Crimea. Officials claimed all troops would leave Belarus after military drills ended on February 20.1 Second, the Kremlin signaled that diplomacy has not been exhausted. In a video released to the public, Putin met with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He asked whether there was still a chance “to reach an agreement with our partners on key issues that cause our concern?” Lavrov replied, “there is always a chance.” Putin replied, “Okay.” Then, after speaking with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Moscow, Putin said: "We are ready to work further together. We are ready to go down the negotiations track.”2 Third, the Ukrainians are supposedly restarting efforts to implement the 2015 Russia-imposed ceasefire, under pressure from Germany and France. Ukraine’s ruling party is expected to introduce three bills to the Rada (parliament) that would result in implementing the terms of the Russian-imposed 2015 ceasefire, the so-called Minsk II Protocols. Ukraine is supposed to change its constitution to adopt a more federal system that grants autonomy to the two Russian separatist regions in the Donbas, Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine is also supposed to hold elections.3 The caveats to these three points are already clear: The US said Russia actually added 7,000 troops to the buildup on the Ukrainian border. Without Russia’s reducing troops, the US and its allies cannot offer major concessions. The US cannot allow itself to be blackmailed as that would encourage future hostage-taking and blackmail. Putin’s offer of talks is apparently separate from its “military-technical” response to the West’s failure to meet its three core demands on NATO. Russia’s three core demands are no further NATO enlargement, no intermediate-range missiles within threatening range, and withdrawal of NATO forces from eastern Europe to pre-1997 status. Putin reiterated that these three demands are inseparable from any negotiation and that Russia will not engage endlessly without resolution. Yet the West has consistently rejected these demands. Then came the Foreign Ministry statement pledging Russia’s military-technical response. So talks that focus on other issues – like missile defense and military transparency – are a sideshow. Ukraine is reiterating its desire to join NATO and will struggle to implement the Minsk Protocol. The Minsk format is not popular in Ukraine as it grants influence and recognition to the breakaway ethnic Russian regions. Ostensibly President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has sufficient strength in the Rada to change the constitution, given the possibility of assistance from opposition parties that oppose war or favor Russia. But passage or implementation could fail. The Russian Duma has also advised Putin to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as independent countries, which Putin is not yet ready to do, but could do if Ukraine balks, and would nullify the Minsk format.4 Of Russia’s three core demands, investors should bear in mind the following points: Ukraine is never going to join NATO. One of the thirty NATO members will veto its membership to prevent war with Russia. Therefore Russia is either making this demand knowing it will fail to justify military action, or driving at something else, such as NATO defense cooperation with Ukraine. Even if NATO membership is practically unrealistic, the US and NATO are providing Ukraine with arms and training, making it a de facto member. The quality and quantity of western defense cooperation is not sufficient to threaten Russia’s military balance so far but it could grow over time and Russia is insisting that it stop. While there is also a broader negotiation over Europe’s entire security system, immediate progress depends on whether the US and its allies stop trying to turn Ukraine into a de facto NATO ally. NATO is not going to sacrifice all of the strategic, territorial, and military-logistical gains it has made since 1997. Especially not when Russia is attempting to achieve such a dramatic pullback by military blackmail. But NATO could reduce some of the most threatening aspects of its stance if Russia reciprocates and there is more military transparency. Similarly, the US and Russia have a track record of negotiating missile defense deals so this kind of agreement is possible over time. The problem, again, hinges on whether agreement can be found over Ukraine. The opposite looks to be the case. Based on the above points, Diagram 1 provides a “Decision Tree” that outlines the various courses of action, our subjective probabilities, and the sum of the conditional probabilities for each final scenario. Diagram 1Russia-Ukraine Decision Tree, February 9, 2022 We start with the view that there is a 55% chance that the status quo continues: the West will not rule out Ukraine’s right to join NATO and will not halt defense cooperation. If this is true, then the new round of talks will fail because Russia’s core security interests will not be met. However, we also give a 25% chance to the scenario in which Ukraine is effectively barred from NATO but not defense cooperation. This may be the emerging scenario, given Chancellor Scholz’s point that Ukrainian NATO membership is not on the agenda and the White House’s claim that it will not pressure states to join NATO. Basically, western leaders could provide informal assurances that Ukraine will never join. But then the matter of defense cooperation must be resolved in the next round of talks. Given that the US and others have increased arms transfers to Ukraine in recent months and years (with US providing lethal arms for the first time in 2018), it seems more likely (60/40) that they will continue with arms transfers. After all, if they halt arms, Russia can invade anyway, but Ukraine will have less ability to resist. We allot a 15% chance to a scenario in which the US and its allies halt defense cooperation, even if they officially maintain NATO’s “open door” policy. If the Russians withdraw troops in this scenario, then a lasting reduction of tensions will occur. Again, while allied defense cooperation has been limited so far, it is up to Russia whether it poses a long-term threat. Finally, we give a 5% chance that the US and NATO will bar Ukraine from membership and halt defense cooperation. This path would mark a total capitulation to Russia’s demands. So far the allies have done nothing like this. They have insisted on NATO’s open door policy and have continued to transfer arms. No one should be surprised that tensions are escalating. De-escalation could still conceivably occur if Russia verifiably withdraws troops, if Ukraine moves to implement the Minsk II protocol, and if the US and its allies pledge to halt defense cooperation with Ukraine. The first step is for Russia to reduce troops, since that enables the US and allies to make major concessions when they are not under duress. If the US and NATO guarantee they will halt defense cooperation, given that Ukraine is practically unlikely to join NATO, then Russia may not be as concerned with Ukraine’s implementation of Minsk. As we go to press, none of these conditions are falling into place. The security situation is deteriorating rapidly. Bottom Line: Russia is likely to stage a limited military intervention into Ukraine (75%). The odds of a diplomatic resolution at the last minute are the same (25%). A full-scale invasion of all of Ukraine remains unlikely (10%). Market Reaction To Re-Escalation Chart 2 highlights the global equity market response to the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, which should serve as the baseline for assessing the market reaction to any renewed attack today. Stocks fell and moved sideways relative to bonds for several months, cyclicals (except energy) underperformed defensives, small caps briefly rose then collapsed against large caps, and value stocks rose relative to growth stocks. The takeaway was to stay invested over the cyclical time frame, prefer large caps, and prefer value. The difference today is that cyclicals and small caps are already performing worse against defensives and large caps than in 2014, while value has vastly outstripped growth (Chart 3). The implication is that once war breaks out, cyclicals and small caps have less room to fall whereas value has limited near-term upside. Chart 2Market Response To Crimea Invasion, 2014​​​​​​ Chart 3Market Response 2022 Versus 2014​​​​​​ If we look closely at global equity gyrations over the past week – when the Ukraine story moved to front and center – we see that stocks are falling relative to bonds, cyclicals are flat relative to defensives, small caps are rising relative to large caps, and value is flat relative to growth but may have peaked (Chart 4). In the short term the geopolitical dynamic will move markets so we expect cyclicals, small caps, and value to underperform. Commodity prices and the energy sector are initially benefiting from tensions as expected – oil prices and energy equities spiked amid the tensions (Chart 5). But assuming war materializes, Russia will at least cut off natural gas flowing through Ukraine, cutting off about 20% of Europe’s natural gas supply and triggering a bigger price shock. Ultimately, however, this price shock will incentivize production, destroy global demand, and drive energy prices down. Chart 4Global Equities Just Woke Up To Ukraine​​​​​​ Chart 5Global Energy Sector Just Woke Up To Ukraine​​​​​ Thus we expect energy price volatility. Russia will keep shipping energy to Europe to finance its military adventures. Europe will be loath to slap sanctions on critical energy supplies, assuming Russia’s military action is limited. The Saudis may or may not increase production to prevent demand destruction – in past Russian invasions they have actually reduced production once prices started to fall. A temporary US-Iran nuclear deal could release Iranian oil to the market, though that is not what we expect in the short run (discussed below). Bottom Line: Tactically investors should favor bonds over stocks, the US dollar and US equities over global currencies and equities (especially European), defensive sectors over cyclicals, large caps over small caps, and growth over value stocks. Is Ukraine Already Priced? Not Yet. Chart 6Crisis Events And Peak-To-Trough Market Drawdown The peak-to-trough equity drawdown – in geopolitical crises that are comparable to a Russian invasion of Ukraine – range from 11%-14% going back to 1931. The following research findings are derived from a list of select events, from the Japanese invasion of China to the German invasion of Poland to lesser invasions, all the way down to Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014. We used the S&P 500 as it is the most representative stock index over this long period of time. The fully updated and broader list of geopolitical crises can be found in Appendix 1. Geopolitical crises tend to trigger an average 10% equity decline, smaller than economic crises or major terrorist attacks (Chart 6). The biggest geopolitical shocks to the equity market occur when an event is a truly global event, as opposed to regional shocks. Interestingly Europe-only shocks have seen some of the smallest average drawdowns at around 8% (Chart 7). An expanded Ukraine war would be limited to Europe. The average equity selloff is largest, at 14%, if both the US and its allies are directly involved in the geopolitical event. But the range is 11%-14% regardless of whether the US or its allies are involved (Chart 8). Ukraine is not an official ally, which is one reason the markets will tend to play down a larger war there. However, the market is underrating the fact that Ukraine’s neighbors are NATO members and will have a powerful interest in supporting the Ukrainian militant insurgency, which could lead to unexpected conflicts that involve NATO member-state’s citizens. Chart 7Geopolitical Crises And Markets: Where Is The Crisis?​​​​​​ Chart 8Geopolitical Crises And Markets: Who Are The Players?​​​​​​ Chart 9Russian Invasion Scenarios And Likely Equity Impact The Russians have as many as 150,000 troops on the border with Ukraine, according to President Biden’s latest speech. The Ukrainian active military numbers 215,000. This ratio is not at all favorable for a full-scale invasion. The Russians are contemplating a limited action directed at teaching Ukraine a lesson or encroaching further onto Ukrainian territory, especially coastal territory. History suggests that a limited incursion will produce a 10% total equity drawdown, whereas a full-scale invasion would produce 13% or more (Chart 9). Still, investors should view 11%-14% as the appropriate range for a geopolitically induced crisis. The S&P has fallen by 9% since its peak on January 3, 2022. But Russia has not invaded yet. If war breaks out, there is more downside, given high uncertainty. Markets could still be surprised by the initial force of any Russian military action. The US will impose sweeping sanctions immediately. The Europeans will modify their sanctions according to Russia’s actions, a key source of uncertainty. If a diplomatic resolution is confirmed – with Russia withdrawing troops and the US and its allies cutting defense cooperation with Ukraine – then the market may continue to rally. However, there are other reasons to be cautious: especially inflation and monetary policy normalization, with the Federal Reserve potentially lifting rates by 50 basis points in March. Bottom Line: Stocks can fall further given that investors do not yet know the magnitude of the Russian military action or the US and European sanctions response. However, a buying opportunity is around the corner once this significant source of global uncertainty is clarified. New Iran Deal Is Neither Guaranteed Nor Durable A short note is necessary on the situation with Iran, another major risk this year, which falls under our third 2022 key view: oil-producing states gain geopolitical leverage. The implication is that the Iran risk will not be resolved quickly or easily. The global economy could suffer a double whammy of energy supply shock from Ukraine and energy supply risk in the Middle East this year. The US-Russia showdown is connected to the US-Iran nuclear negotiation. Russia took Crimea in 2014 in part because it saw an opportunity to exact a price from the United States, which sought Russia’s assistance in negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. Today a similar dynamic is playing out, in which Russian diplomats cooperate on Iranian talks while encroaching on Ukraine. The Russians do not have an interest in Iran achieving a deliverable nuclear weapon and thus will offer some limited cooperation to this end. Their pound of flesh is Ukraine. According to media reports, the Iranian negotiations have seen some positive developments over the past month. US interest in rejoining the 2015 deal: The Biden administration has an interest in preventing Iran from reaching “breakout” levels of uranium enrichment and triggering a conflict in the region that would drive up oil prices ahead of the midterm election. It is going to be hard for Biden to remove sanctions in the context of Russian aggression but it is likely he would do it if the Iranians recommit to complying with the 2015 restrictions on their nuclear program. Iranian interest in rejoining the 2015 deal: The Iranians have an interest in convincing President Biden to remove sanctions to improve their economy and reduce the risk of social unrest. They are demanding the removal of all sanctions, not only those levied by President Trump. They also know that rejoining the 2015 deal itself is not so bad, since it starts expiring in 2025 and does not limit their missile production or support of militant proxies in the region. However, note that the Iranian regime has suppressed domestic instability since Trump’s “maximum pressure” sanctions, and the economy is improving on oil prices, so the threat of social unrest is not forcing Iran to accept a deal today. Also note that Iran is making demands that cannot be met: Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian is asking the US to provide guarantees that the US will not renege on the deal again, for example if the Republicans return to the White House in 2025. President Biden cannot provide these guarantees. The voting margins are too thin for a “political statement,” promising that the US will not renege on a deal, to pass Congress. While House Speaker Nancy Pelosi might be willing to provide such a statement to the Iranians, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer probably will not – he opposed the originally 2015 deal. Even if Congress gave Iran guarantees, the fact remains that the GOP could win the White House in 2025, so the current, hawkish Iranian leadership cannot be satisfied on this front. Furthermore, even if Biden pulls back sanctions and Iran complies with the 2015 deal for a brief reprieve, Iran’s underlying interest is to obtain a deliverable nuclear weapon to achieve regime survival in the future. Iran faces a clear distinction between Ukraine, which gave up nukes and is now being dismembered (like Libya and Iraq), and North Korea, which now has a deliverable nuclear arsenal and commands respect from the US on the national stage. Moreover if the Republicans take back power in 2025, Iran will want to have achieved or be close to achieving a deliverable nuclear weapon. The Biden administration is weak at home and facing a crisis with Russia, which may present a window of opportunity for Iran to make a dash for the nuclear deterrent. Still, we acknowledge the short-term risk to our pessimistic view: It is possible that Iran will rejoin the deal to gain sanctions relief. In this case about 1-1.2 million barrels per day of Iranian crude will hit the global market. The implication, depending on the size of the energy shock, is that Brent crude prices will fall back to the $80 per barrel average that our Commodity & Energy Strategy expects. We also agree with our Commodity & Energy Strategist that global oil production will pick up in the face of supply risks that threaten to destroy demand. Bottom Line: We doubt Iran will rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal quickly. We expect energy prices to continue spiking in the short term due to Ukraine and any setbacks in the Iran negotiations. Yet we also expect oil producers around the world to increase production, which will sow the seeds for an oil price drop. Our tactical trade recommendations rest on falling oil prices and bond yields in the short run. Investment Takeaways Stay long gold. Stay long global defensive equity sectors over cyclicals. Favor global large caps over small caps. Stay long cyber security stocks and aerospace/defense stocks relative to the broad market. Stay long Japanese industrials relative to German and long yen. Stay long British stocks relative to other developed markets excluding the US, and long GBP-CZK. Favor Latin American equities within emerging markets, namely Mexican stocks and Brazilian financials relative to Indian stocks.   Matt Gertken Chief Geopolitical Strategist mattg@bcaresearch.com   Footnotes 1      See "Russia Announces Troop Withdrawal," Russia Today, February 15, 2022, rt.com; "Ukraine crisis: Russian claim of troop withdrawal false, says US," BBC, February 17, 2022, bbc.com. 2     David M. Herszenhorn, “On stage at the Kremlin: Putin and Lavrov’s de-escalation dance,” Politico, February 14, 2022, politico.eu. 3     "Scholz says Zelensky promised to submit bills on Donbass to Contact Group," Tass, February 15, 2022, tass.com; "Scholz in Kyiv confirms Germany won’t arm Ukraine, stays mum on Nord Stream 2," February 15, 2022, euromaidanpress.com. 4     "Kiev makes no secret Minsk-2 is not on its agenda — Russian Foreign Ministry," Tass, February 17, 2022, tass.com; Felix Light, "Russian Parliament Backs Plan To Recognize Breakaway Ukrainian Regions," Moscow Times, February 15, 2022, themoscowtimes.com. Appendix 1: Geopolitical Events And Equity Market Impact Strategic Themes Open Tactical Positions (0-6 Months) Open Cyclical Recommendations (6-18 Months)