Highlights Short-term inflation risk will escalate further if politics causes new supply disruptions. Long-term inflation risk is significant as well. There is a distinct risk of a geopolitical crisis in the Middle East that would…
The Bank of Canada delivered a hawkish surprise on Wednesday. It announced the end of its quantitative easing program. Instead it is shifting to the reinvestment phase whereby it will only purchase bonds to replace maturing ones…
UK 10-year government bond yield fell by 12.8 bps on Wednesday, leading the rally in global long-dated sovereign bonds. The proximate cause of the decline in long-dated Gilt yields is the release of the UK budget which revealed…
BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service concludes that Democratic bills will feed into short-run inflation risks. A major plot twist in Congress occurred over the past two weeks: corporate and individual tax cuts…
Highlights Democrats are backing off from corporate tax hikes, a positive surprise for the earnings outlook. However, the reconciliation bill will be even more stimulating than expected at a time when the output gap is closed. Short-…
The Brazilian real has been among the worst performing EM currencies over the past few months, second only to the Turkish lira. Similarly, Brazilian equities peaked in mid-June and have been on a downtrend since. The latest…
Political and geopolitical forces are joining domestic economic policy in damaging the outlook for the Turkish lira. On Saturday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan risked inflaming tensions with the West by ordering that 10…
At a CNN town hall on Thursday President Biden stated that the US is committed to defending Taiwan[1] if China tried to attack it. The White House later clarified that there was no change in US policy towards Taiwan. Although the…