Investors betting that the RBNZ would hike rates this week were disappointed. Yields on New Zealand's 10-year government bonds ended the week 14 bps lower on the dovish surprise. The RBNZ recently ended its Large-Scale…
Highlights China’s new plan for “common prosperity” is a long-term strategic plan to bulk up the middle class that will strengthen China – if it is implemented successfully. The record on implementing reforms…
Two key motives explain the US’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. First, the US public has grown war weary. According to opinion polls, most Americans do not view the war in Afghanistan – or other wars in the Middle East – as…
Highlights The chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan is symbolic – the US is conducting a strategic pivot to Asia Pacific to confront China. US-Iran negotiations are the linchpin of this pivot. If they fail, war risk will…
BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service concludes that uncertainty about the passage of Biden’s budget reconciliation bill and the debt ceiling will cause volatility to rise in financial markets. With a one-seat de facto…
Highlights The greatest legislative battle of the Biden presidency will unfold between now and the end of the year. Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure deal is likely to pass the Senate soon but will have to cross…
BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service expects the Biden administration to pass a bipartisan infrastructure deal – as well as a large spending bill by Christmas. Ten Republicans are now slated to join 50 Democrats in the…
Highlights China’s July Politburo meeting signaled that policy is unlikely to be overtightened. The Biden administration is likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure deal – as well as a large spending bill by Christmas.…