BCA Research Geopolitical Strategy service concludes that investors currently understate geopolitical risks. President Joe Biden faces imminent tests from China, Iran, and Russia. The phone conversation between Presidents…
Highlights The Biden administration’s budget reconciliation bill will close the output gap, so markets will have to start thinking about upcoming tax hikes, rising wages, and eventual Fed interest rate hikes. Biden’s lax…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Biden administration’s current budget reconciliation bill will lead to another reconciliation bill on infrastructure spending and green projects ahead of…
Highlights We are hesitant to call a top to the volatility spike just yet. The US dollar is experiencing a counter-trend bounce. We also see political and geopolitical risks flashing yellow. House Democrats are drafting a…
Highlights Biden’s initial political capital is moderate-to-strong according to our Political Capital Matrix. He will pass his American Rescue Plan and one or two budget reconciliation bills over the next 18 months. Investors…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, it is not wise to bet against a new president’s major legislative initiatives – especially when his party controls Congress, however narrowly. US fiscal…
Highlights In the wake of COVID-19, the low-probability, high-impact “Black Swan” event is as relevant as ever. Investors should already expect US terrorist incidents, a fourth Taiwan Strait crisis, and crises involving…