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Special Report Your feedback is important to us. Please take our client survey today. Highlights US Election & Duration: We estimate that there is an 80% probability of a US election result that will give a lift to US Treasury yields via…
Your feedback is important to us. Please take our client survey today. Highlights Mounting populism has created a structural tailwind behind inflation. The risk that inflation accelerates quickly is greater than the market…
  According to BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service, the market is over-optimistic on Biden's boost to China plays. China’s 14th Five Year Plan and broader national strategy will continue to provoke…
Special Report Highlights China’s 14th Five Year Plan and broader national strategy will continue to provoke opposition from the US and the West, regardless of the US election. China’s economic blueprint will focus on self-sufficiency…
  BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service is upgrading Trump’s odds of winning to 45%. BCA has bet on a Democratic sweep all year. Incumbent parties rarely survive recessions, and President Trump has mishandled the…
Highlights Global Duration: US Treasury yields have started to creep higher and the move is likely to continue in the coming months regardless of who wins the White House. Reduce overall global duration exposure to below-benchmark,…
Highlights We are upgrading Trump’s odds of winning to 45%. We have bet on a Democratic sweep all year. Incumbent parties rarely survive recessions, and President Trump has mishandled the pandemic. However, our updated…
  As we have previously argued, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service's quantitative Senate election model suggests Democrats will win control, but there is a chance greater than the consensus believes that…
  Jacinda Ardern’s Labor Party won a landslide victory in New Zealand’s Saturday election. In the 2017 election, Ardern’s Labor failed to win the most seats but formed a government with coalition support from the…
Special Report Highlights The US saves too much to achieve full employment but not enough to close the current account deficit. According to the “Swan diagram,” a weaker dollar would move the US economy closer to “external”…