BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service believes that there is a possibility that Trump could benefit from his pitch as the candidate of law and order if unrest continues, violence worsens, and his actions are deemed to…
BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service believes markets are too complacent in the face of social unrest. The market is looking through the most widespread social unrest since 1968 in the United States. History…
Highlights Social unrest in the US is driven by structural and cyclical factors as well as election-year opportunism. It can still cause volatility. Unrest will weigh on consumer and business confidence – adding to already ugly…
Highlights Our base case reflects our view that China’s strong fiscal and monetary stimulus, combined with a weaker US dollar, will provide a favorable backdrop for copper markets in 2H20. Supply factors are for the most part…
The SPX has broken out to fresh recovery highs defying recent rising political and geopolitical risks. The reopening of the economy is the primary driver of renewed market euphoria, along with the ongoing easy fiscal and monetary policies…
Highlights There are no atheists in foxholes, and no Austrians ahead of this election: Republican senators and White House staffers may grumble about giveaways, but they cannot risk being painted as the Grinch who Stole Essential…
BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy team analyzed some near-term geopolitical risks to the rally. They recommend a tactically defensive stance. The rally faces significant near-term risks because of the potential for…
Highlights China is taking advantage of global chaos to solidify its sphere of influence – beginning with Hong Kong. The crisis is also motivating the European Union to link arms more tightly through a symbolic step toward…
An analysis on Turkey is available below. Highlights Due to the sizable stimulus announced by the NPC, we are upgrading our outlook for Chinese growth for this year. Nevertheless, in terms of investment strategy, we are…
Highlights Risk assets continue to ignore the dire state of the economy. “Don’t fight the Fed” will dictate investment policy for the coming months. Populism and supply-chain diversification will…