Yesterday, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service provided investors with an update on North Korea. As we are going to press we have received no official information concerning Kim Jong Un’s status, but the situation…
Highlights Kim Jong Un’s sickness or death is a matter of speculation and it is best to remain skeptical for now. If Kim dies or is incapacitated, it is a serious concern for North Korean and hence regional stability – and…
BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service concluded that Mitch McConnell's recent clash with states could induce some market volatility, but is ultimately a bluff. As deficits rise to astronomical sums, and economies…
Highlights The collapse in oil prices supercharges the geopolitical risks stemming from the global pandemic and recession. Low oil prices should discourage petro-states from waging war, but Iran may be an important exception. Russian…
Highlights Over the past year we have discussed “peak polarization” for the United States with many clients. We have held the contrarian view that political animosities within the US are nearing their peak. Feature Prior to…
Last Friday, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service assessed that the risk of another major Sino-US clash has risen. As President Trump comes to realize he is losing his grip on power, he will have an incentive to…
Highlights The near-term is fraught with risk for US equities and global risk assets. Investors concerned over uncertainty, a slow recovery, and economic aftershocks must also guard against geopolitics. COVID-19 is not a victory for…
Highlights Europe’s dirty little secret: Euro area debt is already mutualised. Investment implication: Overweight Italian BTPs, underweight German bunds, and overweight the euro on a structural (2-year plus) horizon. ESM plus…