Highlights The pandemic has a negative impact on households and has not peaked in the US. But a depression is likely to be averted. Our market-based geopolitical risk indicators point toward a period of rising political turbulence…
US President Trump’s approval rating has fallen amid the pandemic. It is now deviating from that of President Obama in 2012. Our Geopolitical Strategy argues that Trump is no longer favored to win reelection. Trump apparently…
Feature We are downgrading US President Donald Trump’s odds of winning election. We now consider him an underdog. Since November 2018 we had given Trump a 55% chance of victory – and when former Vice President Joe…
Last Friday, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service determined that government health policy is the key to a durable market rebound. The global financial meltdown continues despite massive monetary and fiscal…
Highlights As the global economy moves toward shut-down, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Russia will be forced to end their market-share war and focus on shoring up their economies and tending to their populations’ welfare…
Highlights Our short EM equity index recommendation has reached our target and we are booking profits on this trade. The halt to economic activity will produce a global recession that will be worse than the one that took place in late…
Highlights China is moving from virus containment to normalization and economic stimulus. The full weight of the virus panic is only now hitting the US public and has not yet peaked. The US – and western democracies in general…
Yesterday, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service analyzed how the short-term outlook is in flux because the Trump administration is frantically trying to piece together an economic stimulus package to respond to the coronavirus…