Highlights Expect more volatility in the near-term. The roughly 45% odds of a total US policy reversal in the November election are higher than the market expects. A “Gray Swan” event in the election would be a tie in the…
Highlights Analyses on Asian semis, Argentina and Russia are available on pages 7, 12 and 14, respectively. The most likely trajectory for Chinese growth will be as follows: the initial plunge in business activity will be…
Highlights Duration: Bond yields will stay low until the daily number of new COVID-19 cases falls to zero, at which point a sell-off is likely. We therefore recommend maintaining below-benchmark portfolio duration on a 6-12 month…
Highlights Provided that the coronavirus outbreak is contained, global growth should accelerate over the course of 2020. Stocks usually rise when the economy is strengthening. But could this time be different? We explore five…
A key takeaway from the New Hampshire primary was its elevated turnout, the highest since 2008. If the coming states confirm this trend, it will suggest that the Democrats are highly mobilized. Another important inference is…
Highlights The coronavirus is likely to cut global growth in half (from 3.3% to 1.7%) during the first quarter of 2020. Investors should brace for a slew of profit warnings over the coming weeks from companies with significant…
Last Friday, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service estimates that Biden is still the Democratic front runner. Traditionally Iowa delivers a polling boost to the victor, but this year the first-comer effect is largely moot…
Highlights Trump's odds are still only around 55%. Biden remains the frontrunner in the Democratic primary election, albeit a weak one. Sanders brings forward the risk to this view. Evidence does not suggest that Trump would beat…