Throughout last year, we maintained that former Vice President Joe Biden was the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, albeit with very low conviction. The risk to equities is back. The Democratic Party faces a last-ditch…
Highlights China’s economic rebound in Q1 will be delayed due to the coronavirus, which will have a larger negative hit than SARS. New stimulus measures will assist a rebound in demand later this year. Europe remains a…
Highlights The liquidity-driven rally will soon be followed by an acceleration in global growth. The economic recovery will bump up expectations of long-term profit growth. The dollar has downside, but the euro will not benefit much…
Highlights The coronavirus scare is the catalyst for the recent correction, not the cause. The true cause is that the stock market had reached a point of groupthink-triggered instability and therefore needed the slightest catalyst to…
Assuming Biden clinches the nomination, he has a 45% chance of winning the election – and in that case, his chance of bringing the Senate over to the Democrats is higher than investors realize. For Democrats to unseat…
Trump is slightly favored to win re-election. Bets on the related question of which party will hold the White House have flipped from Democratic to Republican. Yet, investors may be becoming complacent about Trump’s…
2020 may be a particularly violent year for the US. First, left wing activists may be shocked and angered to learn that Joe Biden is the nominee of the Democratic Party come July. With so much hype behind the progressive…